* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BLAS EP032016 07/07/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 110 109 106 103 99 87 74 60 47 35 25 17 DIS V (KT) LAND 110 109 106 103 99 87 74 60 47 35 25 17 DIS V (KT) LGEM 110 104 97 89 82 69 58 46 36 28 21 17 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 1 2 5 6 7 5 14 12 13 14 16 23 33 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 7 6 8 8 9 9 10 14 13 12 10 4 SHEAR DIR 197 106 109 103 101 116 137 185 199 227 233 239 237 SST (C) 26.9 26.4 26.0 25.8 25.8 25.5 24.7 23.9 23.6 23.9 24.1 24.2 24.5 POT. INT. (KT) 133 127 123 121 121 118 109 101 98 101 103 104 108 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.6 -51.7 -51.5 -50.8 -51.9 -51.0 -52.0 -51.8 -51.9 -52.0 -52.3 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.9 0.6 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 64 64 66 65 67 63 58 50 43 38 32 27 25 MODEL VTX (KT) 34 33 32 34 34 32 30 27 24 19 15 12 10 850 MB ENV VOR 32 38 39 45 55 54 57 42 20 15 9 8 12 200 MB DIV 85 74 67 57 57 63 68 36 8 8 -3 4 8 700-850 TADV -1 0 3 6 6 7 14 25 20 12 11 4 8 LAND (KM) 1680 1738 1788 1824 1864 1917 1971 2040 2081 1938 1748 1548 1351 LAT (DEG N) 15.5 15.8 16.0 16.3 16.6 17.5 18.6 19.7 20.8 21.6 22.1 22.4 22.6 LONG(DEG W) 125.0 125.9 126.8 127.7 128.5 130.0 131.5 133.0 134.6 136.3 138.2 140.2 142.2 STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 16 8 3 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 110 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 640 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -2. -6. -10. -14. -24. -34. -43. -51. -56. -59. -60. -61. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. 0. 0. -3. -5. -10. -15. -20. -25. -28. -27. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -4. -7. -11. -23. -36. -50. -63. -75. -85. -93. -98. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 110. LAT, LON: 15.5 125.0 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP032016 BLAS 07/07/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 14.9 40.3 to 144.5 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 6.4 0.0 to 75.9 0.08 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.1 38.9 to 2.1 0.92 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.5 18.9 to 1.4 0.83 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 110.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.30 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 68.0 -11.0 to 135.3 0.54 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 522.0 638.0 to -68.2 0.16 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.1 to -1.7 0.69 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.9% 0.9% 1.8% 0.5% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.0% 0.3% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032016 BLAS 07/07/16 00 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 61 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##