* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FOUR EP042016 07/07/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 38 44 49 61 72 83 94 100 106 109 109 V (KT) LAND 30 34 38 44 49 61 72 83 94 100 106 109 109 V (KT) LGEM 30 33 36 39 43 51 61 73 87 101 109 111 108 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 4 2 0 2 3 5 6 6 6 9 3 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -1 -1 -2 0 0 0 -4 -2 -3 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 95 118 153 27 76 98 94 64 111 155 106 122 72 SST (C) 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.1 28.8 28.9 28.8 28.6 28.5 28.7 28.3 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 159 158 156 155 154 151 153 151 149 148 151 147 137 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.0 -53.1 -53.0 -52.6 -53.1 -52.7 -53.5 -52.8 -53.2 -52.0 -52.2 -51.1 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 6 6 5 700-500 MB RH 74 76 76 75 77 81 80 81 80 77 75 72 73 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 13 14 15 15 17 18 22 27 32 36 40 850 MB ENV VOR -21 -16 -19 -18 -9 4 11 23 38 49 53 53 55 200 MB DIV 25 32 30 28 30 60 69 103 102 95 122 84 126 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 1 1 3 2 1 2 -1 -3 -5 LAND (KM) 926 973 1023 1057 1093 1189 1294 1382 1458 1534 1611 1642 1668 LAT (DEG N) 12.3 12.3 12.2 12.3 12.4 12.5 12.4 12.4 12.5 12.8 13.2 14.0 15.0 LONG(DEG W) 109.6 110.3 111.0 111.6 112.2 113.5 115.3 117.0 118.4 119.9 121.5 123.0 124.4 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 6 6 6 7 9 7 7 7 8 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 26 28 28 26 24 22 22 32 40 38 32 31 27 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 608 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 21.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 13. 19. 23. 26. 27. 28. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 11. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 14. 20. 25. 28. 30. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 14. 19. 31. 42. 53. 64. 70. 76. 79. 79. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 12.3 109.6 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP042016 FOUR 07/07/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.45 3.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.3 40.3 to 144.5 0.83 5.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 26.4 0.0 to 75.9 0.35 2.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.7 38.9 to 2.1 0.77 5.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 2.8 18.9 to 1.4 0.92 6.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.0 -11.0 to 135.3 0.27 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 41.2 638.0 to -68.2 0.85 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.1 to -1.7 0.81 -1.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.8 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.2 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 40% is 3.1 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.9 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.8 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.5 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 28% is 4.8 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 13.9% 40.0% 25.0% 16.3% 0.0% 17.9% 28.3% Logistic: 15.9% 51.7% 45.5% 25.0% 14.8% 44.7% 63.1% Bayesian: 0.2% 23.7% 11.1% 2.3% 0.9% 8.7% 6.7% Consensus: 10.0% 38.5% 27.2% 14.5% 5.2% 23.8% 32.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042016 FOUR 07/07/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##