* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BLAS EP032016 07/07/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 110 107 103 98 92 80 65 52 38 26 18 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 110 107 103 98 92 80 65 52 38 26 18 DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 110 104 96 88 81 67 54 42 31 23 17 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 1 2 5 8 9 12 14 14 15 18 26 34 40 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 7 7 6 2 5 9 11 14 14 9 5 1 SHEAR DIR 150 100 119 96 98 140 172 192 199 223 228 249 258 SST (C) 26.4 26.0 25.7 25.7 25.7 25.1 24.3 23.7 23.6 23.9 24.2 24.4 24.7 POT. INT. (KT) 127 123 120 119 119 113 105 99 98 102 105 106 109 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -52.0 -51.6 -50.9 -51.7 -51.8 -51.4 -51.9 -51.7 -51.9 -52.2 -52.6 -52.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.8 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 700-500 MB RH 65 66 65 68 66 63 54 47 39 34 29 26 26 MODEL VTX (KT) 33 32 33 33 32 32 28 25 20 15 12 9 8 850 MB ENV VOR 37 37 44 52 56 53 45 24 14 2 0 6 11 200 MB DIV 69 54 48 48 55 54 55 17 16 -5 -14 -9 -32 700-850 TADV 3 4 7 5 5 10 23 16 16 6 11 7 1 LAND (KM) 1734 1776 1812 1845 1881 1917 1963 2030 2071 1869 1628 1405 1218 LAT (DEG N) 15.8 16.2 16.5 16.8 17.0 18.1 19.3 20.4 21.2 21.9 22.3 22.3 22.1 LONG(DEG W) 125.9 126.8 127.7 128.4 129.1 130.5 131.9 133.3 135.0 137.0 139.4 141.6 143.4 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 8 7 8 9 9 9 9 11 11 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 8 4 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 110 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 620 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -3. -7. -11. -16. -26. -36. -45. -52. -57. -60. -61. -62. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 3. -2. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -6. -10. -17. -24. -27. -29. -28. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -7. -12. -18. -30. -45. -58. -71. -84. -92. -99.-105. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 110. LAT, LON: 15.8 125.9 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP032016 BLAS 07/07/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 11.7 40.3 to 144.5 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 3.2 0.0 to 75.9 0.04 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.1 38.9 to 2.1 0.81 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.1 18.9 to 1.4 0.79 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 110.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.30 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 54.8 -11.0 to 135.3 0.45 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 512.2 638.0 to -68.2 0.18 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.1 to -1.7 0.65 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032016 BLAS 07/07/16 06 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 56 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##