* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FOUR EP042016 07/07/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 39 44 55 66 75 87 92 99 103 103 V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 39 44 55 66 75 87 92 99 103 103 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 34 36 39 45 52 62 75 87 99 107 106 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 5 2 6 7 6 10 10 10 10 4 7 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -2 -2 -2 -1 -3 -3 -3 -1 -1 0 3 SHEAR DIR 137 166 135 95 84 96 81 67 71 56 52 69 77 SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.1 29.0 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.5 28.9 29.0 28.3 26.5 POT. INT. (KT) 158 157 157 155 154 151 152 151 149 153 154 148 130 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.1 -52.9 -52.5 -52.7 -52.8 -52.9 -53.3 -53.1 -53.1 -52.4 -52.2 -51.1 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 6 6 6 5 700-500 MB RH 77 77 75 76 78 78 79 80 81 79 78 74 68 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 14 15 15 17 19 20 24 27 31 35 40 850 MB ENV VOR -5 -6 -8 -2 9 14 26 35 50 65 63 62 79 200 MB DIV 46 49 47 49 65 74 99 106 101 85 107 116 113 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 2 -3 -2 LAND (KM) 928 969 1013 1075 1140 1244 1313 1408 1528 1641 1709 1763 1835 LAT (DEG N) 12.4 12.4 12.4 12.4 12.4 12.4 12.5 12.5 12.3 12.3 12.6 13.6 15.2 LONG(DEG W) 109.8 110.5 111.1 112.0 112.8 114.1 115.9 117.6 119.2 120.8 122.2 124.2 126.6 STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 7 8 7 7 8 8 8 7 9 12 14 HEAT CONTENT 26 27 27 25 24 22 23 36 39 34 32 36 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 590 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 11.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 13. 19. 23. 26. 27. 28. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 10. 11. 13. 13. 13. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 10. 16. 19. 24. 27. 29. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 14. 25. 36. 45. 57. 62. 69. 73. 73. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 12.4 109.8 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP042016 FOUR 07/07/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.45 3.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.0 40.3 to 144.5 0.82 4.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 25.8 0.0 to 75.9 0.34 2.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.8 38.9 to 2.1 0.41 2.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.7 18.9 to 1.4 0.75 4.4 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 51.2 -11.0 to 135.3 0.43 1.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 36.2 638.0 to -68.2 0.85 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.2 2.1 to -1.7 0.87 -1.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 2.1 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.2 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.3 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.9 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 9.2% 26.8% 19.3% 13.5% 0.0% 14.5% 16.9% Logistic: 10.7% 30.7% 22.9% 6.1% 3.0% 25.9% 9.1% Bayesian: 0.1% 22.0% 8.9% 2.1% 0.7% 0.8% 0.8% Consensus: 6.7% 26.5% 17.0% 7.2% 1.2% 13.7% 8.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042016 FOUR 07/07/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##