* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BLAS EP032016 07/07/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 105 100 95 87 82 68 55 40 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 105 100 95 87 82 68 55 40 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 105 98 89 81 73 60 47 36 26 19 DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 5 9 7 6 12 14 17 21 21 25 32 37 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 4 5 4 4 8 11 13 13 12 11 6 6 SHEAR DIR 316 180 105 132 177 156 173 187 218 220 236 258 256 SST (C) 26.0 25.7 25.7 25.6 25.4 24.6 23.8 23.5 23.7 24.1 24.4 24.6 25.0 POT. INT. (KT) 123 120 120 119 117 108 100 97 99 104 107 109 113 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.3 -51.0 -51.8 -52.0 -51.2 -51.6 -51.8 -51.9 -52.0 -52.3 -52.7 -53.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.4 0.8 0.7 0.3 -0.1 -0.3 -0.2 -0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 3 3 3 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 64 64 67 65 63 59 52 44 38 35 29 26 30 MODEL VTX (KT) 36 36 35 32 32 31 28 24 19 14 10 8 6 850 MB ENV VOR 29 44 60 61 50 50 24 16 6 4 4 0 20 200 MB DIV 46 61 58 47 58 66 53 28 -5 -6 -6 -17 -13 700-850 TADV 5 5 6 7 7 12 21 13 8 9 2 6 -5 LAND (KM) 1773 1805 1841 1858 1878 1908 1972 2022 1992 1789 1551 1316 1118 LAT (DEG N) 16.1 16.4 16.7 17.2 17.7 18.9 20.1 21.1 21.8 22.1 21.9 21.9 22.1 LONG(DEG W) 126.7 127.5 128.3 129.0 129.7 131.0 132.5 134.1 135.8 137.8 140.1 142.4 144.4 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 10 11 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 110 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 645 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -3. -6. -10. -15. -25. -35. -43. -49. -53. -55. -56. -57. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -4. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -3. -3. -6. -10. -16. -23. -29. -33. -35. -33. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -10. -18. -23. -37. -50. -65. -79. -91. -99.-105.-111. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 105. LAT, LON: 16.1 126.7 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP032016 BLAS 07/07/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.28 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 14.5 40.3 to 144.5 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.6 0.0 to 75.9 0.01 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.3 38.9 to 2.1 0.80 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.8 18.9 to 1.4 0.75 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 105.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.37 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 54.0 -11.0 to 135.3 0.44 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 522.2 638.0 to -68.2 0.16 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.1 to -1.7 0.66 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032016 BLAS 07/07/16 12 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 30 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##