* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FOUR EP042016 07/07/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 31 34 38 48 58 70 82 88 94 97 91 V (KT) LAND 30 30 31 34 38 48 58 70 82 88 94 97 91 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 30 31 32 35 40 48 58 70 83 89 83 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 5 2 5 6 8 8 10 4 6 7 11 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -1 3 1 -1 -3 -1 -4 -2 -4 -6 0 1 SHEAR DIR 163 193 109 94 114 98 79 87 78 124 120 70 63 SST (C) 29.4 29.2 29.0 28.9 28.7 28.6 28.7 28.5 28.5 28.6 27.6 26.4 26.1 POT. INT. (KT) 158 156 154 153 150 150 151 149 149 151 140 127 124 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.0 -52.6 -52.8 -52.9 -52.4 -53.2 -52.6 -52.9 -52.3 -52.2 -51.0 -51.3 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 6 6 7 7 7 6 6 5 4 700-500 MB RH 76 73 74 77 79 77 77 79 78 74 71 66 65 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 15 15 16 16 19 20 23 27 31 35 40 40 850 MB ENV VOR -1 -4 -2 6 12 15 25 44 58 69 86 96 101 200 MB DIV 39 33 45 67 78 79 92 93 90 81 92 119 29 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 2 1 1 -2 -1 0 -3 -4 LAND (KM) 955 991 1031 1091 1152 1215 1289 1404 1546 1641 1730 1828 1889 LAT (DEG N) 12.6 12.8 12.9 12.9 12.9 13.1 13.2 13.1 13.2 13.6 14.5 15.3 16.1 LONG(DEG W) 110.5 111.2 111.9 112.7 113.4 115.1 116.7 118.4 120.5 122.5 124.7 126.6 128.3 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 10 11 11 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 22 21 19 17 17 20 27 40 45 34 30 6 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 575 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 38.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 3.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 13. 19. 23. 25. 27. 27. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 8. 8. 9. 8. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 7. 12. 18. 22. 27. 31. 28. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 4. 8. 18. 28. 40. 52. 58. 64. 67. 61. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 12.6 110.5 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP042016 FOUR 07/07/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 2.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.9 40.3 to 144.5 0.80 4.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 19.2 0.0 to 75.9 0.25 1.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.2 38.9 to 2.1 0.45 2.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.2 18.9 to 1.4 0.79 4.4 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 52.4 -11.0 to 135.3 0.43 1.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 41.0 638.0 to -68.2 0.85 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.2 2.1 to -1.7 0.86 -0.9 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.1 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.1 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.8 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 7.1% 25.2% 17.6% 11.9% 0.0% 12.9% 15.7% Logistic: 3.0% 10.8% 9.6% 1.9% 0.8% 8.6% 2.7% Bayesian: 0.0% 4.2% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.4% 13.4% 9.4% 4.6% 0.3% 7.2% 6.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042016 FOUR 07/07/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##