* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BLAS EP032016 07/07/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 100 94 87 82 75 63 46 34 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 100 94 87 82 75 63 46 34 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 100 92 85 77 70 56 43 32 24 18 DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 7 5 6 9 14 16 16 21 25 32 38 39 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 3 4 4 4 10 11 15 12 10 6 2 8 SHEAR DIR 179 139 151 172 157 170 187 188 230 233 248 262 250 SST (C) 25.7 25.7 25.6 25.4 25.1 24.2 23.6 23.5 23.8 24.2 24.5 24.7 25.1 POT. INT. (KT) 120 119 118 116 113 104 98 97 100 105 108 110 113 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.3 -51.8 -52.2 -52.1 -51.6 -52.1 -51.8 -52.0 -52.2 -52.5 -52.9 -52.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.8 0.9 0.4 0.0 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 3 3 2 2 2 2 3 3 4 3 700-500 MB RH 65 68 66 62 59 54 47 40 36 30 26 28 30 MODEL VTX (KT) 33 32 31 32 30 29 24 21 15 12 8 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR 38 56 64 53 46 58 28 16 1 0 2 16 24 200 MB DIV 29 57 63 66 57 63 41 12 -6 -15 -20 -14 -28 700-850 TADV 7 5 6 8 9 22 12 14 6 11 2 3 -2 LAND (KM) 1805 1834 1865 1877 1893 1948 2001 2028 1921 1707 1456 1243 1065 LAT (DEG N) 16.4 16.8 17.1 17.7 18.2 19.4 20.6 21.5 22.0 22.1 21.7 21.8 22.0 LONG(DEG W) 127.5 128.3 129.0 129.7 130.3 131.8 133.1 134.7 136.5 138.6 141.0 143.1 144.9 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 11 10 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 110 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 637 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -3. -6. -9. -13. -23. -32. -40. -45. -48. -50. -51. -52. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -3. -7. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -8. -9. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -12. -17. -25. -29. -32. -32. -31. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -6. -13. -18. -25. -37. -54. -66. -79. -88. -95.-100.-106. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 16.4 127.5 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP032016 BLAS 07/07/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.20 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 17.6 40.3 to 144.5 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.2 0.0 to 75.9 0.00 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.3 38.9 to 2.1 0.78 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.4 18.9 to 1.4 0.71 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 100.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.43 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 54.4 -11.0 to 135.3 0.45 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 504.2 638.0 to -68.2 0.19 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.1 to -1.7 0.67 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032016 BLAS 07/07/16 18 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 21 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##