* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FOUR EP042016 07/07/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 31 34 39 48 60 73 85 92 100 102 95 V (KT) LAND 30 30 31 34 39 48 60 73 85 92 100 102 95 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 30 31 32 35 41 51 63 75 88 92 86 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 3 3 5 8 10 12 11 5 3 3 11 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 3 2 -1 -3 -2 -3 -3 0 -2 -1 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 175 142 111 101 98 84 74 78 51 61 37 68 80 SST (C) 29.2 29.1 28.9 28.7 28.7 28.8 28.6 28.5 28.9 28.6 27.4 26.6 26.3 POT. INT. (KT) 156 155 153 151 151 152 150 149 153 151 138 130 127 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.6 -52.8 -53.0 -52.8 -52.9 -53.2 -53.1 -52.8 -52.5 -52.3 -51.8 -51.5 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 6 6 6 6 6 7 6 6 5 5 4 700-500 MB RH 75 74 76 79 79 80 80 81 78 76 72 67 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 15 15 16 17 18 20 24 28 31 36 40 40 850 MB ENV VOR -7 -2 7 13 19 26 44 61 71 72 74 87 99 200 MB DIV 40 50 75 67 65 88 91 101 95 92 118 107 58 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 -2 -2 -5 -3 -7 LAND (KM) 1043 1082 1126 1196 1233 1314 1427 1550 1660 1759 1862 1951 1996 LAT (DEG N) 12.3 12.5 12.7 12.7 12.7 12.7 12.7 12.7 12.8 13.2 13.9 14.9 16.1 LONG(DEG W) 111.4 112.2 112.9 113.7 114.6 116.3 118.2 120.0 121.7 123.7 125.8 127.8 129.7 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 7 8 9 9 9 9 9 11 10 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 21 20 18 19 20 27 39 43 38 35 27 4 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 560 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 2.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 13. 19. 23. 26. 27. 27. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 8. 10. 11. 11. 11. 11. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 7. 13. 18. 22. 28. 31. 28. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 4. 9. 18. 30. 43. 55. 62. 70. 72. 65. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 12.3 111.4 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP042016 FOUR 07/07/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 2.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.0 40.3 to 144.5 0.79 3.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 19.6 0.0 to 75.9 0.26 1.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.6 38.9 to 2.1 0.31 1.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.4 18.9 to 1.4 0.77 4.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 59.4 -11.0 to 135.3 0.48 1.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 37.0 638.0 to -68.2 0.85 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.7 2.1 to -1.7 1.00 -1.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.8 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.7 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.8 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.9 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 5.2% 21.8% 15.6% 10.9% 0.0% 11.4% 14.9% Logistic: 2.3% 13.0% 6.8% 1.4% 0.6% 5.5% 3.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 1.2% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% Consensus: 2.5% 12.0% 7.6% 4.1% 0.2% 5.7% 6.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042016 FOUR 07/07/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##