* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BLAS EP032016 07/08/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 95 90 85 80 71 58 42 28 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 95 90 85 80 71 58 42 28 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 95 88 81 73 65 50 37 27 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 6 4 8 8 11 10 23 21 27 32 36 40 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 5 9 9 12 10 18 12 11 7 5 4 4 SHEAR DIR 149 126 174 195 176 195 183 222 228 231 242 257 249 SST (C) 25.7 25.6 25.4 25.0 24.6 23.8 23.4 23.6 24.0 24.3 24.5 24.9 25.3 POT. INT. (KT) 120 119 117 112 108 100 96 98 102 105 108 112 116 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.8 -52.4 -52.3 -51.8 -52.2 -51.8 -51.9 -52.2 -52.4 -53.0 -53.1 -53.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.3 0.8 0.7 0.3 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 3 3 2 2 2 3 3 3 4 4 700-500 MB RH 69 68 63 60 58 54 45 40 31 27 25 26 28 MODEL VTX (KT) 33 31 31 31 28 27 22 17 13 10 7 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR 40 52 40 36 43 23 5 -5 -10 -9 1 17 18 200 MB DIV 34 51 52 46 62 49 34 1 -7 -9 -9 -1 -24 700-850 TADV 3 7 12 16 18 19 12 9 12 5 4 -4 0 LAND (KM) 1841 1858 1878 1899 1923 1948 1967 2016 1800 1586 1382 1156 924 LAT (DEG N) 16.7 17.2 17.7 18.3 18.8 20.2 21.5 22.2 22.2 22.2 22.2 22.0 21.6 LONG(DEG W) 128.3 129.0 129.7 130.4 131.1 132.3 133.8 135.6 137.7 139.8 141.8 144.0 146.2 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 9 9 9 10 9 9 10 9 10 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 606 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -2. -5. -8. -13. -22. -31. -37. -42. -44. -46. -46. -47. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -4. -8. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -6. -5. -3. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -6. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -4. -7. -14. -21. -28. -31. -34. -33. -31. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -10. -15. -24. -37. -53. -67. -78. -86. -94. -98.-102. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 95. LAT, LON: 16.7 128.3 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP032016 BLAS 07/08/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.20 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 20.1 40.3 to 144.5 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 0.0 to 75.9 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.0 38.9 to 2.1 0.87 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.2 18.9 to 1.4 0.73 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 95.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 49.0 -11.0 to 135.3 0.41 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 480.8 638.0 to -68.2 0.22 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.1 to -1.7 0.61 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032016 BLAS 07/08/16 00 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 33 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##