* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FOUR EP042016 07/08/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 39 44 55 67 80 89 96 101 101 94 V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 39 44 55 67 80 89 96 101 101 94 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 31 33 35 39 47 57 70 83 91 88 79 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 4 3 5 6 6 9 5 4 6 10 8 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 -1 -2 -2 -2 -5 -3 -3 -4 0 4 5 SHEAR DIR 140 122 119 106 103 81 68 54 24 96 66 83 64 SST (C) 29.2 29.0 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.8 28.5 28.5 28.9 28.4 27.1 26.2 26.1 POT. INT. (KT) 156 154 152 151 150 152 149 149 153 148 135 126 124 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.7 -53.0 -52.8 -52.4 -53.1 -52.8 -53.2 -52.5 -52.6 -51.4 -51.7 -50.8 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 4 700-500 MB RH 75 76 79 78 78 79 79 80 80 77 72 69 70 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 15 15 17 17 19 20 24 27 32 36 39 38 850 MB ENV VOR 3 11 11 15 14 23 39 62 69 62 66 69 75 200 MB DIV 66 79 67 65 84 97 103 97 82 106 95 44 81 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 -1 -5 -2 -2 LAND (KM) 1050 1089 1135 1190 1217 1297 1413 1555 1682 1764 1826 1887 1950 LAT (DEG N) 12.3 12.6 12.8 12.9 12.9 13.0 13.0 12.9 12.9 13.4 14.5 15.5 16.4 LONG(DEG W) 111.5 112.3 113.1 113.9 114.7 116.5 118.4 120.3 122.2 124.0 125.9 127.6 129.4 STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 21 19 18 18 20 26 40 44 36 35 21 2 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 538 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 11.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 7. 13. 19. 23. 25. 27. 27. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 9. 9. 9. 10. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 3. 5. 7. 12. 17. 23. 28. 29. 26. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 14. 25. 37. 50. 59. 66. 71. 71. 64. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 12.3 111.5 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP042016 FOUR 07/08/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 2.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.4 40.3 to 144.5 0.79 4.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 19.2 0.0 to 75.9 0.25 1.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.5 38.9 to 2.1 0.66 4.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.7 18.9 to 1.4 0.81 5.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 72.2 -11.0 to 135.3 0.57 1.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 36.8 638.0 to -68.2 0.85 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.1 to -1.7 0.73 -0.8 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 31% is 2.4 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.5 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.4 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.4 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.1 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 10.3% 31.3% 21.5% 14.0% 0.0% 17.0% 18.3% Logistic: 5.2% 20.1% 17.2% 6.1% 3.3% 21.8% 18.7% Bayesian: 0.0% 7.7% 2.2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.5% 2.1% Consensus: 5.2% 19.7% 13.6% 6.8% 1.1% 13.1% 13.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042016 FOUR 07/08/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##