* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BLAS EP032016 07/08/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 90 85 80 73 66 49 34 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 90 85 80 73 66 49 34 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 90 83 76 67 59 43 31 22 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 8 12 10 10 16 17 23 28 33 37 41 41 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 5 5 11 14 12 16 12 9 5 7 7 8 SHEAR DIR 168 214 213 200 197 213 202 218 213 228 244 237 237 SST (C) 25.6 25.4 25.1 24.6 24.2 23.5 23.3 23.7 24.1 24.3 24.7 25.2 25.4 POT. INT. (KT) 118 116 114 109 104 97 95 99 104 106 110 115 117 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.4 -52.4 -52.0 -52.2 -52.3 -52.1 -52.3 -52.5 -53.3 -53.2 -53.2 -53.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.1 -0.2 -0.4 -0.3 -0.1 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 3 3 3 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 4 700-500 MB RH 68 63 61 58 56 47 42 37 32 28 28 31 30 MODEL VTX (KT) 31 31 30 28 28 23 19 14 11 8 6 4 5 850 MB ENV VOR 44 34 27 34 37 2 -5 -18 -11 -5 9 20 17 200 MB DIV 37 42 44 68 69 52 28 0 -2 -1 25 -14 -34 700-850 TADV 9 14 19 18 21 16 16 10 12 1 0 -5 -7 LAND (KM) 1857 1869 1885 1902 1924 1969 1979 1927 1703 1465 1231 992 751 LAT (DEG N) 17.1 17.7 18.2 18.9 19.5 20.9 22.0 22.5 22.5 22.3 22.2 21.9 21.5 LONG(DEG W) 128.9 129.5 130.2 130.9 131.6 133.0 134.6 136.5 138.7 141.0 143.3 145.6 147.9 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 9 9 9 10 9 10 11 11 11 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 598 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -8. -12. -21. -28. -34. -38. -40. -41. -41. -42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -4. -6. -10. -15. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -7. -6. -4. -3. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -2. -3. -9. -15. -22. -27. -31. -32. -32. -29. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -10. -17. -24. -41. -56. -69. -79. -89. -95.-101.-105. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 17.1 128.9 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP032016 BLAS 07/08/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.20 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 22.3 40.3 to 144.5 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 0.0 to 75.9 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.4 38.9 to 2.1 0.91 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.7 18.9 to 1.4 0.52 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 90.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.57 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 52.0 -11.0 to 135.3 0.43 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 497.2 638.0 to -68.2 0.20 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.1 to -1.7 0.44 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032016 BLAS 07/08/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##