* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FOUR EP042016 07/08/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 40 45 56 70 82 93 100 99 90 82 V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 40 45 56 70 82 93 100 99 90 82 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 34 36 41 49 60 72 81 79 71 60 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 4 1 4 6 6 2 4 4 13 15 22 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -3 -1 -2 0 -2 -2 -1 -3 -1 4 4 3 SHEAR DIR 131 208 213 67 35 73 71 307 39 49 88 91 90 SST (C) 29.2 29.0 28.8 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.5 28.5 28.8 27.9 26.7 26.4 26.1 POT. INT. (KT) 155 154 152 150 150 151 149 150 153 144 131 127 124 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -53.0 -52.9 -52.4 -52.8 -53.0 -53.0 -52.9 -52.4 -52.1 -51.9 -51.9 -51.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.7 0.7 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 4 4 700-500 MB RH 78 80 79 78 78 79 79 81 80 76 74 72 72 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 16 17 18 19 21 26 30 35 36 33 31 850 MB ENV VOR 9 11 12 12 14 25 33 48 58 58 66 69 74 200 MB DIV 95 84 78 83 84 103 107 106 125 137 55 49 71 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 -1 -1 1 0 -1 0 -5 -1 -2 0 LAND (KM) 1056 1097 1143 1196 1226 1314 1411 1547 1705 1831 1918 1966 2030 LAT (DEG N) 12.4 12.6 12.8 12.9 12.9 13.0 13.1 13.1 13.1 13.6 14.6 15.6 16.5 LONG(DEG W) 111.7 112.5 113.2 114.1 114.9 116.8 118.5 120.4 122.8 125.1 127.1 128.8 130.5 STM SPEED (KT) 5 8 8 8 9 9 9 10 12 11 10 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 21 19 18 18 20 28 41 45 34 32 8 4 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 573 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 19.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 7. 13. 18. 23. 25. 27. 27. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 9. 8. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. 0. 0. 2. 4. 4. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 16. 22. 28. 28. 23. 18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 10. 15. 26. 40. 52. 63. 70. 69. 61. 52. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 12.4 111.7 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP042016 FOUR 07/08/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 3.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.0 40.3 to 144.5 0.78 4.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 19.2 0.0 to 75.9 0.25 1.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.6 38.9 to 2.1 0.69 4.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.7 18.9 to 1.4 0.87 5.5 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 84.8 -11.0 to 135.3 0.65 2.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 31.8 638.0 to -68.2 0.86 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.1 to -1.7 0.66 -0.8 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.8 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 35% is 2.7 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 2.7 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.6 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.6 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 32% is 5.4 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 11.3% 34.5% 23.0% 15.0% 0.0% 18.2% 31.8% Logistic: 10.6% 59.2% 41.0% 32.8% 23.3% 45.9% 56.3% Bayesian: 0.5% 8.4% 2.3% 0.6% 0.2% 1.8% 4.8% Consensus: 7.5% 34.1% 22.1% 16.2% 7.8% 22.0% 31.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042016 FOUR 07/08/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##