* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BLAS EP032016 07/08/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 85 80 74 67 58 43 29 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 85 80 74 67 58 43 29 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 85 78 71 62 54 40 29 22 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 10 9 11 13 12 18 22 29 33 34 31 32 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 6 11 13 9 15 13 13 8 1 5 10 12 SHEAR DIR 212 224 190 184 197 221 227 216 224 244 252 220 240 SST (C) 25.4 25.0 24.6 24.1 23.7 23.4 23.6 24.0 24.4 24.6 25.0 25.3 25.5 POT. INT. (KT) 117 113 108 103 99 96 98 102 107 109 113 116 118 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.3 -51.8 -51.9 -52.3 -52.1 -52.3 -52.4 -52.7 -53.3 -53.3 -52.9 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.2 -0.1 -0.4 -0.3 -0.1 0.2 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 3 3 2 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 700-500 MB RH 61 59 57 54 52 43 39 33 30 27 28 28 29 MODEL VTX (KT) 30 30 29 27 24 21 17 13 9 6 5 4 4 850 MB ENV VOR 30 28 36 31 5 -5 -12 -24 -10 -2 14 8 21 200 MB DIV 26 40 75 71 59 39 14 -5 -3 0 -8 -11 -21 700-850 TADV 10 15 17 23 18 11 6 9 4 1 -6 -3 -6 LAND (KM) 1885 1894 1908 1919 1934 1963 2034 1829 1589 1346 1123 912 712 LAT (DEG N) 17.6 18.3 18.9 19.6 20.3 21.4 21.9 22.0 21.7 21.2 20.6 20.1 19.7 LONG(DEG W) 129.7 130.4 131.0 131.6 132.2 133.6 135.4 137.4 139.7 142.0 144.1 146.1 148.0 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 9 9 8 9 10 11 10 10 9 10 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 645 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -8. -12. -20. -26. -31. -33. -35. -36. -36. -37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -11. -14. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -7. -6. -4. -3. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -6. -10. -17. -24. -29. -32. -33. -33. -30. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -11. -18. -27. -42. -56. -67. -77. -86. -91. -96. -98. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 17.6 129.7 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP032016 BLAS 07/08/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.20 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 23.0 40.3 to 144.5 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 0.0 to 75.9 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.8 38.9 to 2.1 0.87 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.3 18.9 to 1.4 0.49 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 85.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 54.2 -11.0 to 135.3 0.45 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 542.4 638.0 to -68.2 0.14 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.1 to -1.7 0.49 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032016 BLAS 07/08/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##