* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FOUR EP042016 07/08/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 39 44 49 55 68 83 98 108 111 106 101 93 V (KT) LAND 35 39 44 49 55 68 83 98 108 111 106 101 93 V (KT) LGEM 35 38 41 45 48 58 71 88 99 97 86 76 67 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 1 3 5 5 5 3 2 4 11 15 14 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -4 -3 -1 0 -6 0 -2 -3 2 0 2 0 SHEAR DIR 174 231 78 31 53 111 55 81 45 58 73 69 52 SST (C) 29.0 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.6 28.3 28.3 27.7 26.5 26.1 25.8 25.2 POT. INT. (KT) 154 152 150 150 151 151 148 147 141 129 125 121 114 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.9 -52.4 -52.6 -52.9 -52.4 -52.9 -51.7 -51.9 -51.3 -51.9 -51.1 -51.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 6 5 5 4 3 3 700-500 MB RH 80 79 78 78 78 77 77 75 76 75 73 74 76 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 18 18 19 20 22 26 32 37 41 40 41 40 850 MB ENV VOR 10 13 16 20 25 31 51 65 64 64 79 74 55 200 MB DIV 92 78 72 78 94 111 92 127 120 89 92 112 43 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 -2 0 1 -1 0 -2 -3 -3 -4 -2 LAND (KM) 1101 1167 1204 1229 1260 1352 1513 1614 1714 1826 1926 2010 2098 LAT (DEG N) 12.5 12.7 12.9 13.0 13.1 13.4 13.6 14.0 14.5 15.2 16.2 17.0 17.7 LONG(DEG W) 112.4 113.4 114.4 115.2 116.0 118.0 120.5 122.6 124.5 126.5 128.9 130.7 132.3 STM SPEED (KT) 7 10 9 8 9 11 11 10 10 11 11 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 23 17 15 17 20 36 41 29 26 3 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 560 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 25.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 12. 17. 20. 21. 22. 22. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 9. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 14. 22. 30. 33. 31. 30. 27. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 14. 20. 33. 48. 63. 73. 76. 71. 66. 58. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 12.5 112.4 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP042016 FOUR 07/08/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.45 3.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.2 40.3 to 144.5 0.73 4.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 18.4 0.0 to 75.9 0.24 1.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.8 38.9 to 2.1 0.65 4.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.3 18.9 to 1.4 0.89 5.8 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.35 1.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 82.8 -11.0 to 135.3 0.64 2.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 40.8 638.0 to -68.2 0.85 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.1 to -1.7 0.72 -0.9 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.8 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 37% is 2.9 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 2.8 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.9 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.8 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.3 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 46% is 7.8 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 13.2% 37.3% 24.5% 16.7% 15.5% 23.2% 45.8% Logistic: 20.5% 66.4% 53.8% 41.8% 30.6% 54.4% 61.1% Bayesian: 4.6% 15.6% 5.8% 1.4% 0.4% 6.2% 11.1% Consensus: 12.8% 39.7% 28.0% 19.9% 15.5% 27.9% 39.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042016 FOUR 07/08/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##