* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BLAS EP032016 07/08/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 69 63 56 48 34 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 75 69 63 56 48 34 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 75 68 60 53 45 33 24 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 7 8 12 13 14 20 27 30 36 32 27 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 12 14 11 13 16 12 12 8 3 8 10 9 SHEAR DIR 223 210 212 205 220 219 234 222 231 255 247 239 255 SST (C) 25.1 24.6 24.2 23.8 23.6 23.4 23.8 24.3 24.6 24.8 25.1 25.4 25.6 POT. INT. (KT) 113 108 104 100 98 96 100 106 109 111 114 116 118 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -51.9 -52.1 -52.4 -52.5 -52.3 -52.2 -52.2 -52.6 -53.0 -53.2 -52.9 -53.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.1 -0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 700-500 MB RH 60 59 56 52 47 40 36 32 29 28 29 29 28 MODEL VTX (KT) 30 28 28 26 24 20 15 12 8 7 5 5 4 850 MB ENV VOR 21 31 29 6 3 0 -19 -9 -6 14 13 15 13 200 MB DIV 32 70 65 51 47 34 -8 -12 -11 0 -10 -21 -37 700-850 TADV 13 17 23 18 14 10 7 4 4 -6 -5 -7 -4 LAND (KM) 1885 1898 1916 1940 1968 2009 1949 1731 1491 1258 1026 848 702 LAT (DEG N) 18.2 18.9 19.5 20.1 20.7 21.4 21.6 21.5 21.2 20.6 19.8 19.4 19.3 LONG(DEG W) 130.2 130.9 131.5 132.2 132.8 134.3 136.2 138.3 140.6 142.8 145.0 146.7 148.1 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 9 8 8 9 10 11 11 10 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 8 CX,CY: -5/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 624 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -6. -9. -16. -20. -23. -25. -25. -25. -26. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -6. -10. -13. -16. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -8. -8. -6. -5. -4. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -7. -7. -6. -5. -3. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -5. -11. -19. -24. -29. -31. -32. -30. -29. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -6. -12. -19. -27. -41. -55. -63. -72. -79. -85. -86. -90. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 18.2 130.2 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP032016 BLAS 07/08/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.12 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 29.7 40.3 to 144.5 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 0.0 to 75.9 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.1 38.9 to 2.1 0.81 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.7 18.9 to 1.4 0.53 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 75.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.77 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 53.0 -11.0 to 135.3 0.44 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 499.4 638.0 to -68.2 0.20 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.1 to -1.7 0.55 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.8 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 4.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032016 BLAS 07/08/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##