* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CELIA EP042016 07/08/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 45 50 55 61 74 87 98 104 102 99 96 88 V (KT) LAND 40 45 50 55 61 74 87 98 104 102 99 96 88 V (KT) LGEM 40 45 49 53 58 68 82 92 92 85 78 71 65 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 2 2 3 4 2 4 2 9 11 6 5 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -2 1 0 -2 -2 2 -2 -3 -2 -1 -2 -1 SHEAR DIR 207 179 20 56 75 103 346 43 66 67 89 87 34 SST (C) 28.8 28.6 28.4 28.6 28.6 28.2 28.1 27.9 26.8 26.1 25.9 25.4 24.7 POT. INT. (KT) 151 150 148 150 151 147 146 144 132 125 122 117 110 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.3 -52.5 -52.8 -52.7 -52.7 -52.5 -51.9 -51.6 -52.0 -52.1 -51.4 -51.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 6 7 6 6 6 5 5 4 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 79 77 77 77 76 76 74 76 75 75 74 73 71 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 17 18 19 20 22 28 32 35 36 37 38 37 850 MB ENV VOR 18 23 27 28 28 38 55 65 59 64 58 62 51 200 MB DIV 98 88 71 86 98 88 105 105 102 63 84 81 15 700-850 TADV 0 0 -2 0 0 0 -2 -2 -5 -5 -3 0 0 LAND (KM) 1111 1152 1160 1201 1248 1378 1515 1653 1774 1876 1943 2059 2202 LAT (DEG N) 12.9 13.2 13.5 13.6 13.7 13.9 14.2 14.5 15.1 15.8 16.8 17.5 18.2 LONG(DEG W) 112.9 113.9 114.8 115.8 116.8 119.0 121.4 123.7 125.8 127.8 129.7 131.7 133.9 STM SPEED (KT) 7 10 9 10 10 11 12 11 10 10 10 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 17 14 15 18 23 45 30 29 9 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 548 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 29.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 11. 14. 16. 17. 17. 17. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 10. 9. 9. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 16. 22. 27. 27. 27. 26. 23. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 15. 21. 34. 47. 58. 64. 62. 59. 56. 48. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 12.9 112.9 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP042016 CELIA 07/08/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.53 5.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.2 40.3 to 144.5 0.67 4.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 17.4 0.0 to 75.9 0.23 2.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.8 38.9 to 2.1 0.68 5.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.3 18.9 to 1.4 0.89 6.7 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.49 3.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 88.2 -11.0 to 135.3 0.68 2.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 66.2 638.0 to -68.2 0.81 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.1 to -1.7 0.60 -0.9 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.9 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.5 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 45% is 3.5 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 30% is 3.5 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.7 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 4.3 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 44% is 6.2 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 57% is 9.6 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 15.6% 44.9% 30.0% 21.3% 17.8% 44.4% 56.5% Logistic: 21.2% 64.4% 58.5% 41.6% 31.6% 64.5% 66.6% Bayesian: 7.5% 28.9% 10.9% 3.6% 1.7% 10.8% 18.4% Consensus: 14.8% 46.0% 33.1% 22.2% 17.0% 39.9% 47.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042016 CELIA 07/08/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##