* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CELIA EP042016 07/09/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 43 47 53 58 70 82 91 92 91 88 82 77 V (KT) LAND 40 43 47 53 58 70 82 91 92 91 88 82 77 V (KT) LGEM 40 42 45 48 51 61 73 81 81 76 70 63 56 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 5 5 8 8 5 5 8 12 10 5 3 2 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 0 -1 -4 -1 2 0 -2 0 0 -1 2 SHEAR DIR 250 13 47 72 85 63 350 67 45 59 54 108 69 SST (C) 28.5 28.4 28.5 28.6 28.4 27.8 27.9 27.2 26.2 26.0 25.5 24.7 24.0 POT. INT. (KT) 149 149 150 151 149 143 144 136 126 124 118 110 103 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.7 -52.9 -52.6 -52.2 -52.7 -51.3 -51.9 -50.9 -52.1 -51.3 -51.7 -51.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.6 0.7 1.0 0.5 0.7 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 4 3 2 2 700-500 MB RH 77 77 77 76 75 75 75 76 76 74 74 73 71 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 20 21 23 23 26 31 35 36 37 36 35 35 850 MB ENV VOR 27 28 27 34 41 52 71 69 67 69 62 61 49 200 MB DIV 104 95 109 101 88 87 107 59 63 46 47 31 22 700-850 TADV -1 -2 0 0 0 -1 -1 -2 -3 -1 -1 2 6 LAND (KM) 1111 1133 1166 1209 1260 1405 1548 1693 1814 1895 1990 2097 2084 LAT (DEG N) 13.5 13.7 13.9 14.1 14.3 14.5 14.7 15.1 15.7 16.5 17.4 18.4 19.5 LONG(DEG W) 113.6 114.7 115.7 116.8 117.8 120.1 122.5 124.8 126.8 128.8 130.8 132.8 134.9 STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 10 10 11 11 12 10 10 11 11 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 14 14 17 21 31 42 22 18 6 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 8 CX,CY: -5/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 604 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 22.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 11. 14. 16. 16. 17. 16. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 8. 7. 7. 7. 8. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 3. 5. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 14. 20. 21. 22. 21. 18. 16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 8. 13. 18. 30. 42. 51. 52. 51. 48. 42. 37. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 13.5 113.6 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP042016 CELIA 07/09/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.45 3.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.4 40.3 to 144.5 0.66 4.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 19.4 0.0 to 75.9 0.26 2.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.6 38.9 to 2.1 0.69 5.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.8 18.9 to 1.4 0.75 5.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.49 2.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 99.4 -11.0 to 135.3 0.75 2.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 74.2 638.0 to -68.2 0.80 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.1 to -1.7 0.53 -0.7 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.8 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.2 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 38% is 3.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 3.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 4.1 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 34% is 4.8 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 43% is 7.2 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 13.7% 38.3% 25.6% 17.2% 16.6% 33.8% 42.5% Logistic: 4.9% 31.8% 22.3% 15.4% 10.4% 24.5% 22.8% Bayesian: 0.7% 14.1% 5.8% 2.0% 0.7% 2.1% 6.1% Consensus: 6.4% 28.1% 17.9% 11.5% 9.3% 20.1% 23.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042016 CELIA 07/09/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##