* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BLAS EP032016 07/09/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 55 48 41 34 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 60 55 48 41 34 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 60 53 47 41 35 25 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 12 11 10 12 22 26 31 34 33 30 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 8 12 17 19 15 13 10 5 8 6 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 223 234 239 226 213 224 217 241 246 245 280 N/A N/A SST (C) 24.4 23.9 23.6 23.5 23.5 23.8 24.3 24.6 24.8 25.1 25.4 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 106 101 98 97 97 100 106 109 111 114 117 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.5 -52.6 -52.3 -52.1 -52.1 -52.2 -52.8 -53.3 -53.5 -53.5 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 2 3 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 58 55 49 43 40 37 34 31 31 30 30 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 26 25 22 21 19 15 11 8 7 5 4 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 27 10 0 -7 -7 -14 2 6 25 15 7 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 56 41 29 35 31 1 -10 -5 -16 -19 -25 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 18 18 13 11 17 3 3 0 -2 -6 -3 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1925 1949 1978 2007 2024 1948 1739 1509 1268 1057 880 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.2 19.9 20.5 20.9 21.3 21.5 21.2 20.9 20.5 20.0 19.4 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 131.4 132.1 132.8 133.6 134.4 136.2 138.2 140.4 142.7 144.7 146.4 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 8 8 9 10 10 10 9 9 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 8 CX,CY: -5/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 609 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -6. -10. -11. -12. -12. -11. -11. -11. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -2. -6. -11. -16. -19. -20. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -8. -6. -5. -4. -3. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -2. -4. -6. -13. -19. -24. -26. -28. -28. -26. -24. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -12. -19. -26. -40. -51. -61. -67. -74. -77. -77. -78. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 19.2 131.4 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP032016 BLAS 07/09/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.12 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 39.8 40.3 to 144.5 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 0.0 to 75.9 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.2 38.9 to 2.1 0.81 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.4 18.9 to 1.4 0.43 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.98 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.4 -11.0 to 135.3 0.34 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 468.6 638.0 to -68.2 0.24 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.1 to -1.7 0.57 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.5 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 3.3% 12.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.1% 4.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032016 BLAS 07/09/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##