* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CELIA EP042016 07/09/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 40 44 49 61 70 78 83 81 79 74 67 V (KT) LAND 35 37 40 44 49 61 70 78 83 81 79 74 67 V (KT) LGEM 35 34 35 36 38 44 51 59 63 64 63 60 54 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 6 10 10 9 3 1 6 8 6 3 5 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 -1 -4 -6 0 4 -2 -3 -3 -3 1 1 SHEAR DIR 16 41 51 71 78 84 27 60 50 61 134 146 145 SST (C) 28.3 28.5 28.4 28.0 27.6 27.8 27.4 26.4 26.2 26.0 25.2 24.2 24.2 POT. INT. (KT) 148 150 149 145 141 143 139 128 125 123 115 106 105 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.9 -52.7 -52.3 -52.7 -52.7 -51.8 -52.1 -51.8 -52.2 -51.8 -51.9 -51.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 4 4 3 2 2 700-500 MB RH 77 76 74 74 73 71 70 72 72 70 67 63 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 20 21 22 22 26 28 30 33 32 32 31 29 850 MB ENV VOR 24 29 40 49 56 65 80 72 74 76 73 64 75 200 MB DIV 99 107 91 73 63 58 81 44 75 51 38 13 41 700-850 TADV -2 0 0 0 -1 1 0 -6 -5 0 0 5 7 LAND (KM) 1115 1157 1208 1280 1354 1511 1676 1830 1935 2015 2098 2151 1903 LAT (DEG N) 14.1 14.3 14.5 14.7 14.8 14.8 15.0 15.4 15.9 16.7 17.7 19.0 20.3 LONG(DEG W) 115.1 116.2 117.3 118.5 119.7 122.1 124.5 126.7 128.7 130.5 132.3 134.3 136.6 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 12 12 12 11 10 10 10 11 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 15 17 23 38 42 20 21 1 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 592 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 12.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 11. 15. 18. 19. 20. 19. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 8. 9. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 12. 15. 18. 17. 16. 14. 11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 14. 26. 35. 43. 48. 46. 44. 39. 32. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 14.1 115.1 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP042016 CELIA 07/09/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.28 2.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.5 40.3 to 144.5 0.68 3.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 27.0 0.0 to 75.9 0.36 2.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.8 38.9 to 2.1 0.60 3.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.7 18.9 to 1.4 0.64 3.8 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.35 1.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 86.6 -11.0 to 135.3 0.67 2.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 93.4 638.0 to -68.2 0.77 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.1 to -1.7 0.50 -0.6 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 2.2 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.3 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.2 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.1 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.3 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 7.9% 28.0% 20.2% 13.0% 12.7% 16.3% 16.7% Logistic: 2.1% 12.0% 9.6% 4.9% 3.1% 10.4% 5.9% Bayesian: 0.0% 2.9% 1.4% 0.5% 0.2% 0.2% 0.4% Consensus: 3.3% 14.3% 10.4% 6.1% 5.3% 8.9% 7.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042016 CELIA 07/09/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##