* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BLAS EP032016 07/09/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 49 42 34 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 55 49 42 34 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 55 49 43 37 32 23 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 14 14 14 19 23 28 32 37 36 45 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 11 13 16 13 13 12 9 9 6 1 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 234 236 231 216 217 222 227 245 247 262 288 N/A N/A SST (C) 24.0 23.7 23.5 23.5 23.7 24.2 24.5 24.7 25.0 25.3 25.7 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 102 99 97 97 99 104 108 110 113 116 121 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.5 -52.4 -52.3 -52.4 -52.3 -52.4 -52.9 -53.3 -53.7 -53.7 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.5 -0.3 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 6 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 54 49 44 42 41 36 35 31 31 31 31 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 23 21 20 18 16 12 9 6 6 4 4 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 17 2 -9 -8 -10 -15 0 6 22 8 8 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 32 16 22 15 5 1 0 -5 -5 -2 -13 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 14 8 12 13 8 6 0 4 -2 -2 -3 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1952 1991 2007 2044 2030 1814 1595 1365 1124 891 659 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.8 20.3 20.9 21.2 21.4 21.5 21.3 21.0 20.7 20.2 19.5 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 132.1 132.9 133.6 134.5 135.4 137.5 139.6 141.8 144.1 146.3 148.5 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 11 10 11 11 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 9 CX,CY: -5/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 620 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -7. -6. -5. -6. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -4. -8. -15. -20. -26. -27. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -7. -6. -5. -3. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -7. -8. -7. -6. -5. -3. -2. -1. 0. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -2. -4. -6. -13. -18. -22. -23. -25. -25. -23. -21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -6. -13. -21. -28. -41. -50. -59. -65. -71. -75. -75. -75. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 19.8 132.1 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP032016 BLAS 07/09/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.12 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 43.8 40.3 to 144.5 0.03 0.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 0.0 to 75.9 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.2 38.9 to 2.1 0.67 1.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.7 18.9 to 1.4 0.24 0.6 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.91 1.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.0 -11.0 to 135.3 0.20 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 464.0 638.0 to -68.2 0.25 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.1 to -1.7 0.59 -0.3 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.5 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.6 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 1.7% 6.6% 4.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.6% 2.2% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032016 BLAS 07/09/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##