* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CELIA EP042016 07/09/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 49 53 58 62 73 82 87 87 83 79 75 68 V (KT) LAND 45 49 53 58 62 73 82 87 87 83 79 75 68 V (KT) LGEM 45 48 50 53 56 63 70 73 73 70 67 62 56 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 10 11 10 8 8 4 9 9 2 4 3 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 -3 -5 -2 -2 -2 -5 -6 -3 -3 2 1 SHEAR DIR 69 65 72 87 95 106 37 72 54 61 109 90 209 SST (C) 28.5 28.3 27.9 27.6 27.7 27.7 26.9 26.2 26.3 25.8 25.2 24.4 24.6 POT. INT. (KT) 151 148 144 141 142 141 133 126 126 121 115 108 110 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.7 -52.4 -52.7 -52.9 -52.2 -52.2 -51.6 -52.1 -51.5 -51.8 -50.8 -51.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 -0.1 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.7 1.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 3 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 76 74 73 71 72 69 70 71 69 69 68 63 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 20 21 21 22 26 29 32 32 32 32 32 30 850 MB ENV VOR 28 39 46 55 57 72 74 72 74 76 63 69 71 200 MB DIV 103 91 84 63 51 60 34 58 61 49 -15 37 10 700-850 TADV 1 1 0 -2 0 1 -2 -5 -4 -1 1 5 8 LAND (KM) 1172 1228 1291 1376 1456 1621 1773 1894 1988 2082 2165 2071 1811 LAT (DEG N) 14.4 14.6 14.7 14.8 14.8 14.8 15.0 15.5 16.1 16.8 17.6 18.6 19.6 LONG(DEG W) 116.6 117.7 118.7 120.0 121.3 123.6 125.7 127.7 129.6 131.4 133.0 135.1 137.5 STM SPEED (KT) 13 10 11 13 12 11 10 10 9 9 10 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 37 44 47 39 22 30 7 1 2 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 427 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 10.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 10. 11. 12. 11. 11. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 8. 8. 7. 6. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 12. 16. 18. 16. 16. 14. 12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 13. 17. 28. 37. 42. 42. 38. 34. 30. 23. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 14.4 116.6 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP042016 CELIA 07/09/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.45 3.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.0 40.3 to 144.5 0.57 3.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 37.8 0.0 to 75.9 0.50 3.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.2 38.9 to 2.1 0.59 4.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.8 18.9 to 1.4 0.58 3.8 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.63 3.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 78.4 -11.0 to 135.3 0.61 2.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 147.2 638.0 to -68.2 0.69 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.1 to -1.7 0.38 -0.5 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.8 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.3 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 33% is 2.6 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 3.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 4.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 26% is 3.7 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.1 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 14.6% 33.2% 25.6% 17.3% 16.5% 26.0% 18.3% Logistic: 3.0% 16.4% 7.9% 4.8% 2.5% 5.5% 3.9% Bayesian: 0.4% 12.3% 5.1% 1.2% 0.2% 1.2% 1.4% Consensus: 6.0% 20.6% 12.9% 7.8% 6.4% 10.9% 7.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042016 CELIA 07/09/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##