* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CELIA EP042016 07/09/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 62 68 74 79 90 95 97 96 90 86 79 69 V (KT) LAND 55 62 68 74 79 90 95 97 96 90 86 79 69 V (KT) LGEM 55 63 71 77 83 93 95 92 86 79 71 63 53 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 8 9 8 7 8 4 9 3 1 3 3 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -3 -4 -2 0 0 1 -4 -2 -3 0 2 -1 SHEAR DIR 84 83 96 104 76 66 34 62 47 304 338 303 318 SST (C) 28.5 28.2 27.8 27.9 28.0 27.7 27.0 26.4 26.3 25.8 25.2 24.7 24.7 POT. INT. (KT) 150 147 143 144 145 141 134 128 127 121 115 110 110 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.5 -52.8 -52.9 -52.8 -52.0 -51.9 -51.9 -52.1 -51.8 -52.0 -51.9 -52.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 4 3 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 76 75 75 75 73 73 76 74 74 73 69 65 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 22 23 24 26 29 32 33 34 33 33 32 29 850 MB ENV VOR 27 34 45 48 55 75 62 55 62 63 50 46 33 200 MB DIV 93 89 72 55 64 76 52 46 34 40 -4 26 -11 700-850 TADV 2 0 0 0 0 0 -4 -5 -2 2 5 9 9 LAND (KM) 1226 1305 1391 1464 1545 1706 1835 1940 2027 2141 2215 2013 1814 LAT (DEG N) 14.3 14.4 14.4 14.4 14.4 14.5 14.6 15.2 16.1 16.8 17.4 18.2 19.1 LONG(DEG W) 117.3 118.5 119.7 120.9 122.1 124.4 126.1 128.0 130.1 132.1 133.9 135.7 137.5 STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 12 12 11 10 9 10 11 10 9 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 44 49 46 32 26 29 10 2 4 3 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 524 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 26.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 8. 7. 6. 5. PERSISTENCE 5. 7. 8. 9. 8. 7. 5. 3. 2. 2. 0. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 10. 13. 16. 18. 15. 15. 13. 8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 7. 13. 19. 24. 35. 40. 42. 41. 35. 31. 24. 14. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 14.3 117.3 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP042016 CELIA 07/09/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 20.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.69 11.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 90.7 40.3 to 144.5 0.48 5.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 39.4 0.0 to 75.9 0.52 7.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.8 38.9 to 2.1 0.60 8.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.7 18.9 to 1.4 0.64 7.9 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.91 9.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 74.6 -11.0 to 135.3 0.59 3.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 167.0 638.0 to -68.2 0.67 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.1 to -1.7 0.31 -0.7 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 1.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 37% is 5.8 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 56% is 4.4 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 54% is 6.3 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 51% is 8.8 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 37% is 9.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 63% is 8.9 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 30% is 5.1 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 36.7% 56.4% 54.1% 50.9% 36.7% 63.5% 29.9% Logistic: 11.3% 30.2% 20.7% 11.9% 6.7% 14.5% 9.7% Bayesian: 7.7% 42.7% 30.2% 14.6% 5.5% 8.2% 2.9% Consensus: 18.6% 43.1% 35.0% 25.8% 16.3% 28.7% 14.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042016 CELIA 07/09/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##