* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BLAS EP032016 07/10/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 29 23 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 29 23 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 35 28 23 20 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 15 18 21 25 26 30 32 35 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 10 11 10 8 8 8 8 9 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 214 221 227 229 230 231 246 248 254 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 23.5 23.6 23.8 24.0 24.2 24.6 24.8 25.1 25.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 97 98 100 102 105 109 111 114 117 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.4 -52.5 -52.5 -52.4 -52.4 -52.7 -53.2 -53.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 0.0 -0.3 -0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 44 41 40 38 36 36 33 34 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 17 15 13 12 10 8 5 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -10 -14 -15 -18 -15 -4 4 22 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 36 18 6 -2 -21 -1 -2 -2 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 10 12 5 1 2 0 0 -1 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2015 2066 1979 1880 1781 1541 1299 1068 848 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.1 21.3 21.4 21.4 21.3 21.0 20.5 20.0 19.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 134.0 135.0 135.9 136.9 137.8 140.1 142.4 144.6 146.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 9 10 11 11 11 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 10 CX,CY: -7/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 620 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 9. 11. 13. 13. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -5. -13. -22. -27. -31. -32. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -5. -8. -10. -11. -11. -11. -9. -7. -5. -4. -1. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -2. -4. -7. -10. -15. -17. -19. -18. -18. -17. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -6. -12. -18. -24. -32. -42. -49. -57. -60. -62. -61. -59. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 21.1 134.0 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP032016 BLAS 07/10/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -20.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.03 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 65.4 40.3 to 144.5 0.24 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 0.0 to 75.9 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.4 38.9 to 2.1 0.61 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.0 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.35 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 7.4 -11.0 to 135.3 0.13 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 328.4 638.0 to -68.2 0.44 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.1 to -1.7 0.67 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 51.4 81.4 to 0.0 0.37 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.2 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032016 BLAS 07/10/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##