* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CELIA EP042016 07/10/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 60 66 72 78 87 91 90 88 86 79 72 66 V (KT) LAND 55 60 66 72 78 87 91 90 88 86 79 72 66 V (KT) LGEM 55 60 66 72 77 86 87 81 76 70 62 53 45 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 5 2 5 7 7 10 7 4 1 2 4 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -2 -2 -4 0 -2 -2 -2 -1 3 3 2 SHEAR DIR 66 75 98 126 114 48 27 32 56 20 266 276 301 SST (C) 28.2 27.8 27.7 27.9 27.9 27.3 26.4 26.3 26.0 25.3 24.3 24.4 24.6 POT. INT. (KT) 146 143 142 144 144 137 127 126 123 117 106 107 109 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.6 -52.5 -52.1 -51.4 -51.8 -51.2 -52.1 -51.5 -51.9 -51.3 -52.1 -52.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 4 3 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 75 75 75 73 74 76 77 76 76 74 70 64 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 25 27 28 31 32 35 36 36 35 36 34 32 31 850 MB ENV VOR 33 44 51 57 66 73 69 68 65 58 53 44 40 200 MB DIV 97 96 70 69 73 31 60 54 67 38 33 26 3 700-850 TADV 2 1 0 1 0 -2 -5 -3 -1 3 3 12 13 LAND (KM) 1286 1367 1434 1507 1585 1754 1877 1958 2054 2145 2091 1884 1674 LAT (DEG N) 14.4 14.5 14.6 14.6 14.6 14.7 15.2 15.8 16.5 17.5 18.7 19.7 20.4 LONG(DEG W) 118.3 119.5 120.7 121.8 122.9 125.2 127.1 128.9 130.8 132.7 134.9 136.8 138.8 STM SPEED (KT) 10 12 11 11 11 10 9 10 10 11 11 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 48 46 31 23 29 17 2 1 3 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 546 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 27.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 5. 8. 13. 15. 15. 15. 15. 12. 9. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 11. 17. 23. 32. 36. 35. 33. 31. 24. 17. 11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 14.4 118.3 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP042016 CELIA 07/10/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.53 7.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 88.6 40.3 to 144.5 0.46 4.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 35.4 0.0 to 75.9 0.47 5.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.7 38.9 to 2.1 0.58 6.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.0 18.9 to 1.4 0.79 8.1 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.91 7.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 81.0 -11.0 to 135.3 0.63 3.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 167.6 638.0 to -68.2 0.67 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.1 to -1.7 0.23 -0.4 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 1.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.5 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 46% is 3.6 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 44% is 5.1 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 36% is 6.2 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 31% is 7.6 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 47% is 6.6 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 21.8% 46.1% 43.6% 36.1% 31.0% 46.6% 16.8% Logistic: 3.9% 20.0% 12.0% 6.5% 3.5% 6.0% 2.5% Bayesian: 1.6% 24.4% 11.5% 3.6% 1.2% 2.5% 0.3% Consensus: 9.1% 30.2% 22.4% 15.4% 11.9% 18.4% 6.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042016 CELIA 07/10/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##