* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CELIA EP042016 07/10/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 51 54 58 62 73 77 80 80 76 71 66 63 V (KT) LAND 50 51 54 58 62 73 77 80 80 76 71 66 63 V (KT) LGEM 50 50 50 52 54 60 63 63 61 57 50 44 40 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 1 4 6 7 7 9 5 3 3 3 6 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 -2 -3 -3 0 -1 0 0 0 4 1 1 SHEAR DIR 30 337 162 144 110 33 39 48 88 264 157 249 252 SST (C) 27.8 27.6 27.6 27.7 27.6 26.7 26.2 26.1 25.4 24.5 23.9 24.2 24.4 POT. INT. (KT) 142 141 141 142 141 131 125 124 117 108 102 105 107 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.4 -52.0 -51.5 -51.8 -51.7 -51.6 -51.9 -51.4 -51.5 -51.3 -51.8 -51.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.8 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.9 0.9 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 4 3 2 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 74 74 73 73 72 74 75 75 75 75 72 68 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 27 28 30 32 33 37 38 38 37 36 34 32 31 850 MB ENV VOR 40 48 53 62 67 71 66 68 61 51 51 44 45 200 MB DIV 89 65 61 57 33 61 54 39 44 12 33 0 -2 700-850 TADV 0 0 2 1 0 -5 -3 -4 0 1 11 16 18 LAND (KM) 1329 1397 1467 1553 1644 1815 1892 1958 2034 2130 2040 1831 1619 LAT (DEG N) 14.7 14.8 14.9 14.9 14.9 15.0 15.7 16.5 17.5 18.6 19.9 20.9 21.6 LONG(DEG W) 119.2 120.4 121.6 122.8 124.0 126.2 127.9 129.6 131.4 133.3 135.3 137.3 139.4 STM SPEED (KT) 10 12 12 12 11 10 9 9 11 11 11 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 47 33 19 24 27 4 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 609 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 10.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 4. 6. 12. 14. 15. 14. 12. 9. 6. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 8. 12. 23. 27. 30. 30. 26. 21. 16. 13. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 14.7 119.2 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP042016 CELIA 07/10/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.28 2.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 91.2 40.3 to 144.5 0.49 2.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 30.0 0.0 to 75.9 0.40 3.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.0 38.9 to 2.1 0.54 3.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.1 18.9 to 1.4 0.84 5.4 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.77 4.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 61.0 -11.0 to 135.3 0.49 1.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 170.8 638.0 to -68.2 0.66 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.1 to -1.7 0.32 -0.4 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.8 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 30% is 2.3 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 2.8 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.7 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.5 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.4 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 11.4% 29.9% 23.7% 15.8% 15.2% 17.6% 14.2% Logistic: 1.3% 12.9% 5.1% 3.4% 1.7% 2.1% 0.9% Bayesian: 0.0% 1.2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% Consensus: 4.2% 14.7% 9.8% 6.4% 5.7% 6.6% 5.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042016 CELIA 07/10/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##