* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CELIA EP042016 07/10/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 65 71 76 83 88 88 89 86 79 71 65 60 V (KT) LAND 60 65 71 76 83 88 88 89 86 79 71 65 60 V (KT) LGEM 60 64 69 74 78 83 82 78 72 63 54 47 42 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 4 6 5 5 12 11 4 1 1 4 7 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -3 -3 -3 -2 -3 -3 -1 8 6 2 0 SHEAR DIR 87 127 116 98 75 31 36 45 23 135 228 283 289 SST (C) 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.5 27.0 26.4 26.4 25.8 24.9 24.1 24.2 24.6 24.6 POT. INT. (KT) 142 142 142 140 135 127 127 121 112 104 105 109 109 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.1 -51.5 -51.7 -51.9 -51.3 -51.9 -51.4 -51.6 -51.0 -51.8 -51.7 -52.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.7 1.1 1.0 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 3 2 2 3 3 700-500 MB RH 74 72 71 71 71 72 72 74 72 71 67 60 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 27 29 31 32 34 36 35 37 37 35 33 32 30 850 MB ENV VOR 52 61 70 76 77 78 75 65 52 47 41 41 38 200 MB DIV 64 63 59 34 31 44 20 63 35 30 21 -2 -9 700-850 TADV 1 3 1 1 -2 -5 -3 -2 2 8 15 20 17 LAND (KM) 1425 1497 1576 1672 1772 1919 1996 2058 2140 2097 1903 1685 1437 LAT (DEG N) 14.7 14.8 14.9 14.9 14.9 15.2 15.9 16.9 18.0 19.1 20.1 20.7 21.0 LONG(DEG W) 120.7 121.9 123.1 124.3 125.6 127.7 129.5 131.2 133.0 134.8 136.6 138.7 141.1 STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 12 12 12 9 10 10 10 10 10 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 24 17 25 29 16 6 10 3 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 531 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 28.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 7. 9. 9. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 4. 7. 11. 11. 13. 14. 11. 7. 5. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 11. 17. 23. 28. 28. 29. 26. 19. 11. 5. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 14.7 120.7 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP042016 CELIA 07/10/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.45 4.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 79.9 40.3 to 144.5 0.38 2.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 22.2 0.0 to 75.9 0.29 2.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.1 38.9 to 2.1 0.86 7.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.6 18.9 to 1.4 0.82 6.6 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.98 6.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 50.2 -11.0 to 135.3 0.42 1.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 226.4 638.0 to -68.2 0.58 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.1 to -1.7 0.51 -0.8 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 1.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.1 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 44% is 3.4 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 33% is 3.8 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 4.3 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 6.4 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.6 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.3 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 19.4% 43.6% 33.1% 26.8% 24.6% 18.5% 13.3% Logistic: 12.2% 35.8% 20.0% 15.3% 9.8% 6.1% 1.7% Bayesian: 4.2% 10.0% 4.7% 1.4% 0.5% 1.0% 0.1% Consensus: 11.9% 29.8% 19.3% 14.5% 11.6% 8.6% 5.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042016 CELIA 07/10/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##