* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GENESIS EP722016 07/10/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 25 29 36 44 51 57 60 62 63 64 V (KT) LAND 20 21 23 25 29 36 44 51 57 60 62 63 64 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 21 21 23 25 28 31 34 38 43 49 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 10 5 6 6 5 7 12 9 7 5 9 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -1 0 0 2 0 -3 0 -3 -4 -2 -2 SHEAR DIR 359 9 17 26 78 94 72 87 82 107 114 89 63 SST (C) 29.7 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.0 28.7 28.6 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 162 160 159 158 157 153 150 150 155 154 152 149 147 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.2 -52.9 -53.1 -53.4 -53.2 -53.8 -53.5 -53.8 -53.6 -54.1 -53.5 -54.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 700-500 MB RH 79 77 77 77 78 77 79 77 78 76 79 79 78 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -9 -10 -13 -14 -22 -42 -42 -24 -17 6 30 38 46 200 MB DIV 63 51 53 46 49 32 42 50 42 36 19 54 75 700-850 TADV -2 -1 -1 -2 -1 0 3 5 6 5 2 0 -1 LAND (KM) 720 741 776 806 845 931 1062 1190 1358 1553 1743 1890 1930 LAT (DEG N) 12.3 12.7 13.0 13.2 13.4 13.7 13.6 13.0 12.0 10.9 9.8 9.0 8.9 LONG(DEG W) 106.0 107.1 108.1 109.0 109.9 111.4 112.9 114.3 115.8 117.5 119.0 120.2 120.7 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 10 9 8 7 7 8 10 10 8 5 2 HEAT CONTENT 57 59 36 25 24 20 12 15 28 35 40 50 53 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 576 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 33.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 4.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -1. 0. 6. 14. 22. 29. 32. 35. 36. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 9. 16. 24. 31. 37. 40. 42. 43. 44. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 12.3 106.0 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP722016 GENESIS 07/10/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 139.4 40.3 to 144.5 0.95 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 40.2 0.0 to 75.9 0.53 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.0 38.9 to 2.1 0.65 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.5 18.9 to 1.4 0.59 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 52.4 -11.0 to 135.3 0.43 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 21.8 638.0 to -68.2 0.87 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.1 to -1.7 0.33 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 12.3% 4.2% 0.8% 0.3% 0.0% 0.1% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP722016 GENESIS 07/10/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##