* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CELIA EP042016 07/10/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 77 84 90 93 97 96 93 86 76 68 61 57 V (KT) LAND 70 77 84 90 93 97 96 93 86 76 68 61 57 V (KT) LGEM 70 78 85 90 94 93 89 81 72 62 55 48 44 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 4 4 5 11 11 4 2 3 4 6 7 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -4 -4 -5 -4 -1 -2 -1 2 -1 0 -3 SHEAR DIR 68 97 106 50 32 39 49 69 190 199 251 278 296 SST (C) 27.7 27.7 27.4 26.9 26.5 26.3 26.1 25.4 24.4 24.1 24.4 24.6 24.6 POT. INT. (KT) 142 142 138 133 129 126 124 117 107 104 106 109 109 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -51.7 -51.8 -51.9 -51.7 -51.5 -51.6 -51.1 -51.5 -51.3 -51.9 -52.0 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.5 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 3 2 2 2 3 3 700-500 MB RH 71 70 70 71 70 70 71 71 69 68 64 61 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 28 30 32 34 35 37 37 36 35 33 31 30 29 850 MB ENV VOR 59 67 77 74 73 78 77 68 60 57 44 49 44 200 MB DIV 52 57 50 38 48 41 30 29 -6 21 -7 6 -6 700-850 TADV 2 2 0 -4 -7 -2 -2 0 2 10 15 17 12 LAND (KM) 1488 1575 1668 1750 1835 1943 2021 2092 2184 2000 1799 1603 1377 LAT (DEG N) 14.9 15.0 15.0 15.1 15.2 15.7 16.4 17.4 18.6 19.6 20.4 20.9 21.2 LONG(DEG W) 121.9 123.2 124.4 125.5 126.6 128.6 130.3 132.0 133.9 135.7 137.6 139.5 141.7 STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 11 11 10 10 9 10 10 10 9 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 15 24 27 14 5 7 7 3 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 513 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 36.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -4. -7. -10. -12. -14. -16. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 5. 7. 11. 12. 11. 10. 6. 4. 3. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 7. 14. 20. 23. 27. 26. 23. 16. 6. -2. -9. -13. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 14.9 121.9 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP042016 CELIA 07/10/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.61 5.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 66.9 40.3 to 144.5 0.25 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 17.0 0.0 to 75.9 0.22 1.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.7 38.9 to 2.1 0.85 6.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.7 18.9 to 1.4 0.76 5.4 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 70.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.84 5.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 49.0 -11.0 to 135.3 0.41 1.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 278.2 638.0 to -68.2 0.51 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.1 to -1.7 0.60 -0.8 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.9 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 35% is 5.6 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 37% is 2.9 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 3.3 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.5 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 4.8 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.3 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 35.3% 37.2% 28.0% 20.3% 19.6% 16.3% 0.0% Logistic: 23.9% 31.8% 20.1% 12.7% 7.7% 5.3% 1.8% Bayesian: 14.7% 11.4% 7.6% 2.9% 1.1% 0.8% 0.0% Consensus: 24.6% 26.8% 18.6% 12.0% 9.5% 7.4% 0.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042016 CELIA 07/10/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##