* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CELIA EP042016 07/11/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 76 82 86 89 89 87 83 74 65 59 53 50 V (KT) LAND 70 76 82 86 89 89 87 83 74 65 59 53 50 V (KT) LGEM 70 76 81 85 87 85 80 72 63 55 49 44 40 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 3 4 9 14 10 5 1 2 3 2 4 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -2 -4 -6 -2 -1 0 2 0 1 0 0 SHEAR DIR 58 54 37 23 34 40 29 70 151 242 309 334 332 SST (C) 27.7 27.5 27.0 26.6 26.3 26.2 25.8 25.1 24.2 24.3 24.6 24.7 24.8 POT. INT. (KT) 142 140 134 130 127 125 121 114 105 106 109 110 111 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.9 -52.0 -51.8 -51.2 -52.0 -51.5 -51.8 -51.2 -52.0 -51.8 -52.2 -52.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.6 1.1 0.8 0.7 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 5 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 4 700-500 MB RH 71 71 71 71 72 73 73 71 67 63 58 52 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 29 32 34 35 36 35 34 34 31 29 28 26 26 850 MB ENV VOR 53 67 68 68 68 73 66 58 51 51 44 46 45 200 MB DIV 61 68 55 53 67 36 48 27 9 0 -5 -1 -3 700-850 TADV 0 0 -3 -5 -4 0 -2 1 9 12 12 10 11 LAND (KM) 1561 1641 1725 1802 1874 1957 2025 2111 2120 1915 1715 1488 1242 LAT (DEG N) 14.9 15.0 15.1 15.3 15.4 16.1 16.9 17.9 18.9 19.7 20.4 20.8 21.1 LONG(DEG W) 122.9 124.1 125.2 126.3 127.3 129.2 130.8 132.6 134.6 136.5 138.4 140.6 143.0 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 10 10 9 9 10 10 10 10 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 22 28 17 6 3 6 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 497 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 35.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -4. -8. -11. -13. -15. -16. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 3. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 6. 6. 3. 0. -1. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 12. 16. 19. 19. 17. 13. 4. -5. -11. -17. -20. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 14.9 122.9 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP042016 CELIA 07/11/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.53 4.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 64.3 40.3 to 144.5 0.23 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 15.2 0.0 to 75.9 0.20 1.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.6 38.9 to 2.1 0.85 6.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.9 18.9 to 1.4 0.69 4.4 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 70.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.84 4.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 60.8 -11.0 to 135.3 0.49 1.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 270.4 638.0 to -68.2 0.52 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.1 to -1.7 0.61 -0.8 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.8 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 27% is 4.4 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 32% is 2.5 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 2.8 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.9 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 4.2 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 27.5% 32.1% 24.2% 18.7% 15.4% 14.5% 0.0% Logistic: 18.0% 22.8% 15.1% 7.7% 5.1% 4.1% 1.0% Bayesian: 9.9% 9.7% 4.7% 1.5% 0.5% 0.6% 0.0% Consensus: 18.5% 21.5% 14.7% 9.3% 7.0% 6.4% 0.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042016 CELIA 07/11/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##