* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CELIA EP042016 07/11/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 79 82 85 86 88 87 81 73 65 58 53 48 V (KT) LAND 75 79 82 85 86 88 87 81 73 65 58 53 48 V (KT) LGEM 75 78 81 82 81 79 75 68 60 52 47 44 41 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 3 4 6 9 4 3 2 3 7 5 8 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -3 -4 -4 -2 -1 0 1 -4 -1 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 70 58 13 34 43 54 101 59 225 229 255 293 303 SST (C) 27.6 27.2 26.6 26.3 26.2 26.1 25.5 24.6 24.1 24.4 24.6 24.6 25.1 POT. INT. (KT) 140 136 130 127 125 124 118 109 104 107 109 109 115 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.4 -52.2 -51.3 -51.7 -52.0 -51.5 -52.0 -51.5 -51.8 -51.8 -52.1 -52.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.8 1.2 0.8 0.9 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 5 4 3 2 2 2 3 3 4 700-500 MB RH 72 71 71 71 72 72 69 67 62 58 52 50 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 30 31 32 33 33 34 34 33 31 29 27 26 25 850 MB ENV VOR 60 60 60 64 69 76 74 64 66 58 68 58 59 200 MB DIV 63 55 56 67 59 17 60 17 14 4 11 0 -15 700-850 TADV 0 -2 -3 -2 -2 -1 0 4 14 10 14 10 10 LAND (KM) 1637 1712 1792 1856 1906 1981 2064 2157 2032 1809 1582 1337 1094 LAT (DEG N) 14.9 15.1 15.2 15.5 15.7 16.5 17.3 18.3 19.4 20.3 20.9 21.3 21.5 LONG(DEG W) 123.9 125.0 126.1 127.1 128.1 129.9 131.6 133.4 135.4 137.5 139.7 142.1 144.5 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 10 10 10 10 9 11 11 10 11 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 29 20 8 3 4 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 496 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 19.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -4. -8. -12. -16. -18. -20. -21. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 10. 11. 10. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 3. 6. 6. 4. 1. -1. -4. -5. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 10. 11. 13. 12. 6. -2. -10. -17. -22. -26. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 14.9 123.9 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP042016 CELIA 07/11/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.45 3.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 56.7 40.3 to 144.5 0.16 0.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 12.8 0.0 to 75.9 0.17 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.2 38.9 to 2.1 0.78 5.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.0 18.9 to 1.4 0.79 4.8 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 75.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.77 4.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 60.0 -11.0 to 135.3 0.49 1.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 286.6 638.0 to -68.2 0.50 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.1 to -1.7 0.63 -0.7 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.6 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 2.2 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.5 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.5 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.6 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 16.6% 27.8% 21.3% 16.3% 13.2% 11.7% 0.0% Logistic: 4.8% 5.8% 5.2% 2.6% 1.5% 1.3% 0.5% Bayesian: 0.5% 2.0% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 7.3% 11.9% 9.1% 6.4% 4.9% 4.4% 0.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042016 CELIA 07/11/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##