* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CELIA EP042016 07/11/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 80 84 87 87 88 87 81 73 64 58 53 46 43 V (KT) LAND 80 84 87 87 88 87 81 73 64 58 53 46 43 V (KT) LGEM 80 84 86 86 85 80 72 63 54 48 43 40 38 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 6 9 9 9 3 2 2 3 5 6 8 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -4 -4 -2 1 1 3 2 2 -2 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 60 17 29 37 42 60 81 217 185 247 289 312 306 SST (C) 27.9 27.4 26.9 26.6 26.4 25.8 24.9 24.1 24.1 24.4 24.6 24.7 25.2 POT. INT. (KT) 144 138 133 129 127 121 112 104 104 107 110 111 116 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.3 -51.3 -51.7 -51.9 -51.3 -51.9 -51.5 -51.8 -51.8 -52.3 -52.3 -52.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.7 1.0 1.0 0.7 0.6 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 4 3 3 2 2 3 3 4 4 700-500 MB RH 71 70 70 71 72 73 69 66 61 55 49 44 40 MODEL VTX (KT) 31 32 33 31 33 33 31 29 27 26 25 23 22 850 MB ENV VOR 60 61 61 68 67 66 65 56 39 46 55 51 47 200 MB DIV 52 52 72 51 24 46 18 11 16 9 -3 -11 3 700-850 TADV -4 -4 -4 -2 -2 -1 0 8 13 17 8 10 2 LAND (KM) 1716 1788 1860 1891 1926 1985 2081 2160 1956 1727 1461 1217 965 LAT (DEG N) 15.0 15.2 15.4 15.8 16.1 17.0 18.1 19.2 20.1 20.8 21.3 21.5 21.6 LONG(DEG W) 125.0 126.1 127.1 128.0 128.8 130.4 132.4 134.2 136.1 138.3 140.9 143.3 145.8 STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 10 9 9 10 11 10 10 12 12 12 11 HEAT CONTENT 14 2 13 2 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 506 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 19.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -5. -11. -16. -21. -23. -25. -27. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 1. -2. -5. -6. -7. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 7. 8. 7. 1. -7. -16. -22. -27. -34. -37. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 15.0 125.0 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP042016 CELIA 07/11/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.53 3.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 54.1 40.3 to 144.5 0.13 0.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 7.0 0.0 to 75.9 0.09 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.2 38.9 to 2.1 0.75 4.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.5 18.9 to 1.4 0.65 3.7 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 80.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.71 3.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 50.2 -11.0 to 135.3 0.42 1.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 299.0 638.0 to -68.2 0.48 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.1 to -1.7 0.65 -0.7 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.1 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.2 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 3.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 15.5% 24.2% 18.3% 12.9% 12.3% 9.8% 0.0% Logistic: 9.1% 6.4% 6.0% 2.4% 1.4% 1.8% 0.4% Bayesian: 3.3% 1.9% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 9.3% 10.8% 8.3% 5.2% 4.6% 3.9% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042016 CELIA 07/11/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##