* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CELIA EP042016 07/11/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 80 81 81 82 81 77 70 61 54 48 41 37 34 V (KT) LAND 80 81 81 82 81 77 70 61 54 48 41 37 34 V (KT) LGEM 80 81 81 79 77 70 61 51 43 38 34 32 31 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 7 9 7 4 2 5 6 5 8 6 9 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -4 -3 0 1 1 2 -2 -1 -2 0 0 SHEAR DIR 354 36 32 41 43 197 197 201 226 292 316 302 302 SST (C) 27.5 27.1 26.7 26.4 26.2 25.4 24.6 24.1 24.3 24.6 24.7 25.0 25.3 POT. INT. (KT) 139 135 130 127 126 117 109 104 106 109 111 114 117 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -51.5 -51.7 -51.9 -52.0 -51.7 -52.3 -51.7 -51.9 -51.7 -52.0 -52.2 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.5 1.3 1.1 0.8 0.6 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 4 4 3 3 2 2 3 3 4 4 700-500 MB RH 70 70 71 73 73 70 65 60 55 47 43 40 40 MODEL VTX (KT) 32 32 31 34 33 32 30 28 26 25 22 20 20 850 MB ENV VOR 56 56 59 59 62 67 56 56 47 59 51 49 50 200 MB DIV 55 70 59 28 21 53 9 18 0 -6 -5 -7 -4 700-850 TADV -4 -3 -2 -1 -1 2 7 15 12 10 5 8 2 LAND (KM) 1774 1841 1894 1919 1950 2008 2109 2073 1851 1612 1365 1111 844 LAT (DEG N) 15.1 15.3 15.5 16.0 16.4 17.5 18.5 19.5 20.3 20.8 21.0 21.3 21.6 LONG(DEG W) 125.8 126.8 127.7 128.5 129.4 131.1 133.0 135.0 137.1 139.4 141.8 144.3 147.0 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 9 10 10 11 10 11 11 12 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 5 14 1 4 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 519 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 6.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -2. -6. -12. -17. -22. -24. -26. -27. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 10. 9. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -2. -5. -8. -9. -13. -14. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 1. -2. -10. -19. -26. -32. -39. -43. -46. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 15.1 125.8 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP042016 CELIA 07/11/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.45 3.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 51.3 40.3 to 144.5 0.11 0.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 5.4 0.0 to 75.9 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.1 38.9 to 2.1 0.67 3.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.4 18.9 to 1.4 0.71 3.8 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 80.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.71 3.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 46.6 -11.0 to 135.3 0.39 1.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 285.0 638.0 to -68.2 0.50 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.1 to -1.7 0.65 -0.7 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.6 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.9 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.9 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.5 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 12.0% 20.7% 16.0% 11.2% 10.3% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.4% 3.0% 1.7% 0.8% 0.4% 0.5% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.5% 8.1% 5.9% 4.0% 3.6% 0.2% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042016 CELIA 07/11/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##