* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP052016 07/11/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 37 42 48 58 69 73 79 78 81 78 74 V (KT) LAND 30 34 37 42 48 58 69 73 79 78 81 78 74 V (KT) LGEM 30 33 36 39 42 49 56 62 65 68 68 68 65 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 14 13 11 8 8 10 12 14 7 6 4 1 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -3 0 0 0 -1 2 0 0 -1 2 -1 2 SHEAR DIR 67 59 48 64 58 46 51 40 54 59 33 15 194 SST (C) 29.0 28.8 28.7 28.9 29.1 28.9 28.1 27.6 27.6 27.0 26.5 26.0 25.2 POT. INT. (KT) 154 152 151 153 155 154 146 140 140 133 128 124 116 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -52.8 -53.0 -53.2 -52.9 -52.9 -52.7 -52.4 -52.7 -52.7 -52.9 -52.6 -52.9 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 4 700-500 MB RH 80 78 77 78 75 75 72 67 68 68 72 70 66 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 11 10 13 14 16 20 19 23 23 26 25 25 850 MB ENV VOR 7 14 5 7 18 31 39 55 70 83 85 90 80 200 MB DIV 37 40 52 42 51 48 51 46 45 32 10 14 15 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -4 -1 0 -4 2 -2 -3 -2 -3 -7 0 LAND (KM) 453 457 452 509 579 752 871 986 1121 1216 1275 1350 1445 LAT (DEG N) 15.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 106.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 9 9 9 10 11 11 9 8 9 11 12 HEAT CONTENT 43 37 30 27 33 36 14 9 16 9 3 1 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 8 CX,CY: -5/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 601 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 18.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 13. 18. 23. 25. 26. 26. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 7. 7. 6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. 1. 3. 5. 10. 10. 15. 14. 18. 16. 14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 12. 18. 28. 39. 43. 49. 48. 51. 48. 44. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 15.1 106.0 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052016 INVEST 07/11/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.45 3.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.1 40.3 to 144.5 0.79 4.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 34.0 0.0 to 75.9 0.45 3.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.9 38.9 to 2.1 0.71 4.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.3 18.9 to 1.4 0.43 2.6 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 44.4 -11.0 to 135.3 0.38 1.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 32.8 638.0 to -68.2 0.86 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.1 to -1.7 0.75 -0.9 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 30% is 2.3 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.4 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.3 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.2 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.8 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 11.3% 29.6% 20.5% 13.3% 0.0% 15.6% 16.3% Logistic: 8.7% 27.3% 18.3% 8.6% 4.6% 20.3% 20.3% Bayesian: 0.3% 33.0% 19.5% 5.8% 2.2% 10.3% 8.3% Consensus: 6.8% 30.0% 19.4% 9.2% 2.3% 15.4% 15.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052016 INVEST 07/11/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##