* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CELIA EP042016 07/12/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 85 87 88 87 84 76 64 56 47 40 30 26 23 V (KT) LAND 85 87 88 87 84 76 64 56 47 40 30 26 23 V (KT) LGEM 85 86 85 82 78 68 57 48 41 36 33 31 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 4 4 3 2 3 4 10 10 12 10 19 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -1 1 2 2 4 -1 0 -4 0 1 3 SHEAR DIR 29 37 24 67 101 203 191 221 266 307 320 301 288 SST (C) 27.1 26.7 26.4 26.1 25.7 24.9 24.1 24.2 24.5 24.6 24.8 25.2 25.5 POT. INT. (KT) 135 130 128 125 121 112 104 105 108 110 112 116 119 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.8 -52.1 -52.1 -51.7 -52.1 -52.0 -51.9 -51.7 -52.0 -52.2 -52.5 -53.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.8 1.2 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 5 700-500 MB RH 70 70 73 72 71 66 58 53 44 40 37 37 34 MODEL VTX (KT) 32 32 33 32 30 28 26 24 22 21 16 15 15 850 MB ENV VOR 53 57 56 62 65 64 50 51 50 57 46 48 46 200 MB DIV 75 61 32 23 42 18 15 17 -4 -13 -3 -11 2 700-850 TADV -2 0 0 0 1 5 14 11 11 1 4 2 3 LAND (KM) 1828 1867 1904 1930 1962 2048 2160 1935 1716 1480 1224 965 707 LAT (DEG N) 15.3 15.7 16.0 16.6 17.1 18.2 19.2 20.1 20.7 21.1 21.3 21.6 21.9 LONG(DEG W) 126.6 127.5 128.4 129.3 130.2 132.1 134.2 136.3 138.4 140.7 143.2 145.8 148.5 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 10 10 11 11 11 10 10 12 12 13 12 HEAT CONTENT 15 11 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 526 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 8.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -3. -4. -10. -17. -23. -27. -30. -32. -32. -33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 8. 6. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -9. -11. -15. -16. -21. -21. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 2. -1. -9. -21. -29. -38. -45. -55. -59. -62. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 15.3 126.6 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP042016 CELIA 07/12/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.45 3.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 42.5 40.3 to 144.5 0.02 0.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 6.0 0.0 to 75.9 0.08 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.6 38.9 to 2.1 0.77 4.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.7 18.9 to 1.4 0.87 4.8 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 85.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 3.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 46.6 -11.0 to 135.3 0.39 1.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 297.0 638.0 to -68.2 0.48 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.1 to -1.7 0.68 -0.7 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.2 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 13.6% 22.8% 17.4% 11.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.9% 7.7% 5.5% 2.9% 1.8% 1.0% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 6.4% 10.2% 7.7% 4.9% 0.6% 0.3% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042016 CELIA 07/12/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##