* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FIVE EP052016 07/12/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 39 45 50 63 74 79 82 82 83 82 77 V (KT) LAND 30 34 39 45 50 63 74 79 82 82 83 82 77 V (KT) LGEM 30 33 36 40 43 53 61 68 71 71 71 71 67 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 11 10 10 9 11 7 12 11 9 8 2 1 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 0 1 0 -2 0 1 0 0 0 -3 0 0 SHEAR DIR 56 40 43 52 63 52 57 42 60 54 56 52 120 SST (C) 28.8 28.8 28.8 29.0 29.1 28.7 27.8 27.7 27.0 26.6 26.5 26.2 25.2 POT. INT. (KT) 151 151 152 155 156 152 143 142 134 129 128 126 115 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.9 -52.9 -52.7 -52.4 -53.0 -52.0 -52.5 -52.3 -52.7 -52.3 -52.9 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 4 700-500 MB RH 79 78 78 76 74 72 67 66 66 70 72 70 65 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 13 15 16 20 23 23 25 25 27 28 26 850 MB ENV VOR 15 8 6 16 26 31 52 63 72 74 77 86 89 200 MB DIV 44 46 46 57 57 54 52 21 43 19 40 17 43 700-850 TADV -1 -3 -2 0 0 0 3 -1 -2 -5 -4 -4 0 LAND (KM) 442 454 476 561 653 797 898 1039 1173 1283 1391 1538 1664 LAT (DEG N) 15.6 15.9 16.1 16.1 16.1 16.0 15.9 16.0 16.3 16.6 16.9 17.4 17.9 LONG(DEG W) 106.5 107.2 107.9 109.0 110.1 112.1 114.3 116.7 119.0 121.0 122.7 124.9 127.2 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 9 11 10 10 11 12 10 9 9 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 38 32 27 30 39 28 10 11 8 3 2 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 8 CX,CY: -4/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 666 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 24.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 13. 18. 22. 24. 26. 26. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 3. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 10. 14. 15. 18. 17. 19. 19. 15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 15. 20. 33. 44. 49. 52. 52. 53. 52. 47. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 15.6 106.5 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052016 FIVE 07/12/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.45 3.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.2 40.3 to 144.5 0.80 4.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 33.2 0.0 to 75.9 0.44 3.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.8 38.9 to 2.1 0.74 5.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.3 18.9 to 1.4 0.49 3.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 50.0 -11.0 to 135.3 0.42 1.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 41.2 638.0 to -68.2 0.85 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.1 to -1.7 0.51 -0.6 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.8 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 32% is 2.5 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.6 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.5 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.4 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 12.2% 31.6% 22.1% 14.4% 0.0% 16.8% 16.6% Logistic: 6.3% 26.0% 19.3% 10.9% 6.2% 19.0% 24.6% Bayesian: 0.2% 31.0% 20.1% 6.5% 2.5% 10.8% 5.3% Consensus: 6.3% 29.6% 20.5% 10.6% 2.9% 15.5% 15.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052016 FIVE 07/12/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##