* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CELIA EP042016 07/12/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 85 84 83 81 76 65 55 48 40 31 26 21 20 V (KT) LAND 85 84 83 81 76 65 55 48 40 31 26 21 20 V (KT) LGEM 85 83 80 75 69 57 47 40 35 30 27 25 23 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 5 2 1 3 3 10 14 15 14 18 26 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 0 2 0 3 2 0 -1 0 4 2 2 SHEAR DIR 340 330 309 138 235 214 213 255 288 301 296 291 278 SST (C) 26.6 26.2 25.9 25.5 25.0 24.1 23.7 24.1 24.3 24.5 24.9 25.2 25.3 POT. INT. (KT) 130 125 122 119 114 104 100 104 106 108 112 116 117 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.3 -52.1 -51.5 -51.9 -52.3 -51.9 -52.1 -52.1 -52.1 -52.1 -52.6 -53.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.5 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 3 3 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 4 700-500 MB RH 71 70 71 71 69 62 57 49 42 41 41 41 37 MODEL VTX (KT) 31 33 32 31 30 27 25 24 23 19 18 17 17 850 MB ENV VOR 59 52 53 55 62 45 55 44 48 38 43 41 58 200 MB DIV 70 36 36 49 42 2 13 4 -3 -14 -11 -4 -6 700-850 TADV -2 0 2 5 8 7 14 12 8 2 7 3 7 LAND (KM) 1847 1865 1888 1921 1960 2062 2049 1812 1599 1368 1150 913 677 LAT (DEG N) 15.8 16.4 16.9 17.5 18.1 19.3 20.5 21.3 21.7 22.0 22.2 22.5 22.8 LONG(DEG W) 127.4 128.3 129.1 130.0 131.0 133.0 135.2 137.5 139.6 141.9 144.1 146.6 149.3 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 11 11 12 12 10 11 10 11 13 12 HEAT CONTENT 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 557 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 2.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -6. -13. -20. -26. -30. -32. -33. -34. -35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 4. 1. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -5. -8. -10. -12. -16. -17. -18. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -4. -9. -20. -30. -37. -45. -54. -59. -64. -65. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 15.8 127.4 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP042016 CELIA 07/12/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 36.9 40.3 to 144.5 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 1.0 0.0 to 75.9 0.01 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.5 38.9 to 2.1 0.69 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 2.9 18.9 to 1.4 0.91 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 85.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 46.6 -11.0 to 135.3 0.39 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 315.6 638.0 to -68.2 0.46 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.1 to -1.7 0.62 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 10.0% 18.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.2% 1.2% 1.7% 0.5% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.8% 6.5% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042016 CELIA 07/12/16 06 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##