* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FIVE EP052016 07/12/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 40 45 58 67 75 78 81 80 75 73 V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 40 45 58 67 75 78 81 80 75 73 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 34 36 43 50 57 63 66 68 65 62 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 11 10 9 9 9 7 12 11 10 7 5 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 -3 -3 0 0 0 -1 0 -3 -1 -2 SHEAR DIR 39 45 50 67 59 52 50 62 60 54 43 17 280 SST (C) 28.8 28.8 29.0 29.1 29.0 28.2 27.6 27.5 26.9 26.8 26.6 25.7 25.0 POT. INT. (KT) 152 152 155 156 155 147 141 140 133 132 129 120 112 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.9 -52.8 -52.5 -52.8 -52.8 -52.3 -52.7 -52.6 -52.9 -52.6 -52.7 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 5 5 5 4 4 700-500 MB RH 78 78 76 73 72 68 64 66 65 68 67 65 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 12 13 14 15 19 20 23 23 26 27 25 26 850 MB ENV VOR 9 8 22 29 38 47 62 78 91 86 94 88 90 200 MB DIV 45 49 61 62 67 64 32 40 49 16 21 9 -1 700-850 TADV -3 -1 0 -1 -3 1 0 -1 -3 -4 -6 -3 0 LAND (KM) 453 496 552 639 731 836 974 1151 1291 1413 1517 1606 1688 LAT (DEG N) 15.8 16.0 16.1 16.1 16.1 16.0 15.9 15.8 16.0 16.4 17.0 17.6 18.2 LONG(DEG W) 107.1 108.0 108.9 110.0 111.0 113.2 115.6 118.0 120.4 122.5 124.3 126.1 127.8 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 10 10 10 11 12 12 11 9 9 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 33 27 29 38 38 17 9 18 7 3 6 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 9 CX,CY: -6/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 678 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 12.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 13. 18. 22. 24. 26. 26. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 4. 11. 13. 17. 18. 21. 21. 17. 16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 10. 15. 28. 37. 45. 48. 51. 50. 45. 43. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 15.8 107.1 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052016 FIVE 07/12/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 2.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.9 40.3 to 144.5 0.80 4.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 33.0 0.0 to 75.9 0.43 2.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.9 38.9 to 2.1 0.49 3.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.1 18.9 to 1.4 0.50 2.9 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 56.8 -11.0 to 135.3 0.46 1.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 57.0 638.0 to -68.2 0.82 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.1 to -1.7 0.42 -0.5 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.1 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.1 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.5 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 7.2% 25.3% 18.4% 12.2% 0.0% 14.5% 14.5% Logistic: 2.4% 6.9% 9.4% 2.1% 1.0% 9.1% 3.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 12.3% 4.1% 1.1% 0.3% 0.9% 0.8% Consensus: 3.2% 14.8% 10.7% 5.1% 0.4% 8.2% 6.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052016 FIVE 07/12/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##