* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CELIA EP042016 07/12/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 80 77 73 70 64 52 45 39 31 23 18 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 80 77 73 70 64 52 45 39 31 23 18 DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 80 76 72 66 60 49 41 35 30 26 23 21 19 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 4 2 4 4 9 15 16 16 17 28 31 34 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 0 1 0 0 2 -1 0 0 4 5 1 1 SHEAR DIR 303 301 200 230 222 198 240 263 282 268 285 283 274 SST (C) 26.1 25.8 25.4 24.9 24.4 23.7 23.9 24.1 24.2 24.5 25.0 25.2 25.2 POT. INT. (KT) 125 122 118 112 107 100 102 104 105 108 113 115 115 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.1 -51.5 -52.0 -52.3 -52.1 -52.2 -52.1 -52.4 -52.4 -52.5 -53.0 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.8 0.8 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 4 4 700-500 MB RH 72 71 72 70 68 61 55 47 42 41 43 43 40 MODEL VTX (KT) 33 32 31 30 29 26 26 24 22 19 18 17 19 850 MB ENV VOR 45 47 49 60 50 48 44 37 34 39 42 43 57 200 MB DIV 37 36 52 45 26 18 15 8 -16 -1 -10 5 -6 700-850 TADV 0 2 5 7 7 8 15 12 5 5 4 9 4 LAND (KM) 1842 1873 1910 1945 1987 2112 1956 1743 1526 1301 1069 868 691 LAT (DEG N) 16.5 17.1 17.6 18.3 18.9 20.0 20.9 21.7 22.3 22.6 22.5 22.8 23.3 LONG(DEG W) 128.1 129.1 130.0 131.0 131.9 134.0 136.1 138.2 140.4 142.7 145.0 147.2 149.5 STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 11 11 11 11 11 10 10 11 10 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 9 CX,CY: -6/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 564 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -7. -13. -19. -23. -26. -28. -29. -29. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 0. -4. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -9. -10. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -9. -11. -15. -18. -20. -19. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -10. -16. -28. -35. -41. -49. -57. -62. -66. -66. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 16.5 128.1 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP042016 CELIA 07/12/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.28 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 36.7 40.3 to 144.5 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 0.0 to 75.9 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.2 38.9 to 2.1 0.64 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.7 18.9 to 1.4 0.87 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 80.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.71 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 39.2 -11.0 to 135.3 0.34 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 286.6 638.0 to -68.2 0.50 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.1 to -1.7 0.59 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 7.7% 15.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 0.5% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.8% 5.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042016 CELIA 07/12/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##