* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FIVE EP052016 07/12/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 37 44 55 63 72 76 79 78 72 71 V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 37 44 55 63 72 76 79 78 72 71 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 31 33 35 40 45 50 55 58 59 57 56 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 11 10 9 10 7 10 9 11 7 7 4 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -3 -3 -1 1 -1 -4 -1 0 0 1 -3 SHEAR DIR 39 51 59 45 46 39 23 49 47 46 34 33 313 SST (C) 28.8 29.0 29.1 28.9 28.6 27.8 27.8 27.3 26.8 26.8 26.7 25.8 25.2 POT. INT. (KT) 152 154 156 154 151 143 142 137 132 131 130 121 115 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.8 -52.6 -52.9 -53.0 -51.8 -52.7 -52.0 -52.5 -52.1 -52.6 -52.1 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.7 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 5 5 4 700-500 MB RH 78 76 73 72 71 68 66 68 68 68 68 66 65 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 15 16 17 20 23 24 26 27 29 29 26 27 850 MB ENV VOR 7 17 25 33 35 53 57 64 64 83 86 85 83 200 MB DIV 48 59 64 62 61 57 22 62 30 39 7 1 1 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 -3 -2 4 -2 -3 -3 -1 -4 0 0 LAND (KM) 492 567 650 746 827 928 1057 1192 1309 1429 1541 1629 1726 LAT (DEG N) 16.0 16.0 15.9 15.8 15.7 15.6 15.7 15.9 16.2 16.5 16.9 17.4 17.9 LONG(DEG W) 108.0 109.0 109.9 111.0 112.0 114.3 116.6 118.7 120.9 122.8 124.5 126.2 128.0 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 10 10 11 11 11 10 10 9 8 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 25 26 32 31 22 10 12 14 2 1 1 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 582 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 30.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 6.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 13. 18. 22. 24. 25. 25. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 3. 4. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 7. 11. 14. 17. 18. 20. 19. 14. 14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 7. 14. 25. 33. 42. 46. 49. 48. 42. 41. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 16.0 108.0 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052016 FIVE 07/12/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 2.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.4 40.3 to 144.5 0.80 3.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 27.2 0.0 to 75.9 0.36 2.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 30.2 38.9 to 2.1 0.24 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.6 18.9 to 1.4 0.47 2.4 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 58.8 -11.0 to 135.3 0.48 1.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 70.2 638.0 to -68.2 0.80 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.6 2.1 to -1.7 0.14 -0.1 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.4 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.7 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.8 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 4.3% 18.6% 14.6% 10.4% 0.0% 12.2% 12.0% Logistic: 0.9% 2.9% 3.0% 0.4% 0.1% 2.3% 1.4% Bayesian: 0.0% 1.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.4% Consensus: 1.7% 7.6% 6.0% 3.6% 0.0% 4.8% 4.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052016 FIVE 07/12/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##