* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CELIA EP042016 07/12/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 65 61 56 51 42 36 32 24 19 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 70 65 61 56 51 42 36 32 24 19 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 70 64 58 53 48 40 34 29 25 22 20 19 17 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 3 6 4 5 11 16 13 12 18 29 33 35 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 0 -1 0 1 -1 0 1 4 2 1 3 SHEAR DIR 291 250 245 223 199 230 250 263 278 277 281 274 275 SST (C) 25.8 25.4 24.9 24.5 24.1 23.7 23.9 24.2 24.4 24.7 25.2 25.2 25.1 POT. INT. (KT) 122 118 112 108 104 100 102 105 107 111 116 115 114 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -51.8 -52.0 -52.4 -52.6 -52.1 -52.4 -52.2 -52.5 -52.6 -53.1 -53.6 -54.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.5 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 4 4 700-500 MB RH 71 70 68 67 63 59 52 44 42 42 43 40 40 MODEL VTX (KT) 31 31 30 29 28 26 25 24 20 18 17 18 19 850 MB ENV VOR 46 49 55 49 39 56 40 39 37 40 42 58 70 200 MB DIV 40 43 50 35 13 24 0 3 -8 -2 -3 -1 22 700-850 TADV 2 5 8 6 6 14 13 9 1 8 6 11 8 LAND (KM) 1865 1899 1938 1989 2044 2070 1854 1644 1431 1193 940 762 635 LAT (DEG N) 17.1 17.7 18.3 18.8 19.3 20.4 21.4 22.0 22.1 22.3 22.7 23.2 23.7 LONG(DEG W) 129.0 130.0 130.9 131.9 132.8 135.0 137.1 139.2 141.3 143.7 146.4 148.6 150.5 STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 11 10 11 11 11 10 10 12 12 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 10 CX,CY: -7/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 552 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -3. -5. -10. -14. -17. -18. -19. -19. -20. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. -2. -6. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -7. -7. -6. -5. -4. -2. -1. 0. 1. 3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -3. -6. -7. -10. -15. -17. -18. -16. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -9. -14. -19. -28. -34. -38. -46. -51. -55. -57. -57. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 17.1 129.0 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP042016 CELIA 07/12/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.12 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 42.7 40.3 to 144.5 0.02 0.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 0.0 to 75.9 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.4 38.9 to 2.1 0.64 3.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.5 18.9 to 1.4 0.82 3.5 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 70.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.84 3.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.2 -11.0 to 135.3 0.32 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 287.2 638.0 to -68.2 0.50 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.1 to -1.7 0.63 -0.5 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.3 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 4.5% 13.4% 11.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.6% 4.5% 3.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042016 CELIA 07/12/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##