* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DARBY EP052016 07/12/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 49 53 59 66 73 81 86 86 85 80 74 70 V (KT) LAND 45 49 53 59 66 73 81 86 86 85 80 74 70 V (KT) LGEM 45 51 57 63 68 75 80 83 83 79 74 68 64 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 13 12 12 11 9 12 9 13 8 7 3 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -3 -2 0 0 -2 -1 0 -1 -2 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 54 67 66 68 63 44 62 74 45 73 51 46 324 SST (C) 29.0 29.0 28.7 28.3 27.9 27.8 27.7 27.3 27.3 27.3 26.5 25.9 25.4 POT. INT. (KT) 155 155 152 148 144 143 142 137 137 137 128 122 117 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.6 -52.8 -52.9 -52.6 -52.4 -52.8 -52.5 -52.6 -52.4 -52.7 -52.7 -53.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 5 5 4 700-500 MB RH 77 74 71 71 69 67 67 70 72 69 66 65 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 15 17 19 22 22 25 26 27 28 26 24 24 850 MB ENV VOR 12 17 23 39 54 57 59 74 75 90 82 87 80 200 MB DIV 44 68 75 71 74 64 45 63 19 25 -13 -9 25 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -1 -3 -2 -2 -2 1 1 LAND (KM) 614 717 822 880 934 1071 1229 1350 1459 1587 1735 1818 1893 LAT (DEG N) 15.7 15.6 15.5 15.4 15.3 15.1 15.2 15.4 15.8 16.1 16.3 16.8 17.6 LONG(DEG W) 109.3 110.5 111.6 112.7 113.8 116.0 118.4 120.5 122.5 124.4 126.4 128.1 129.8 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 10 10 9 9 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 28 31 25 15 10 16 27 10 3 1 4 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 480 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 20.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 9. 11. 13. 14. 14. 13. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. 7. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 3. 2. 2. 1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 6. 8. 12. 15. 17. 17. 14. 10. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 14. 21. 28. 36. 41. 41. 40. 35. 29. 25. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 15.7 109.3 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052016 DARBY 07/12/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.61 4.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.7 40.3 to 144.5 0.63 3.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 21.8 0.0 to 75.9 0.29 2.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.3 38.9 to 2.1 0.40 2.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.3 18.9 to 1.4 0.38 2.3 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.63 3.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 66.4 -11.0 to 135.3 0.53 1.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 128.8 638.0 to -68.2 0.72 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.8 2.1 to -1.7 0.07 -0.1 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 2.1 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.4 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.8 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.6 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 13.2% 26.9% 21.0% 16.0% 0.0% 18.5% 0.0% Logistic: 4.6% 12.9% 6.6% 2.0% 0.8% 4.6% 2.2% Bayesian: 0.2% 15.6% 6.6% 1.8% 0.3% 0.9% 1.1% Consensus: 6.0% 18.4% 11.4% 6.6% 0.4% 8.0% 1.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052016 DARBY 07/12/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##