* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CELIA EP042016 07/13/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 61 58 53 48 41 35 29 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 65 61 58 53 48 41 35 29 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 65 59 54 49 45 37 32 27 23 20 18 16 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 7 5 9 13 16 13 14 20 32 34 38 37 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -1 -1 0 0 0 0 4 3 0 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 260 245 220 210 211 242 256 271 271 278 278 272 277 SST (C) 25.4 24.8 24.3 23.9 23.7 23.9 24.0 24.2 24.5 25.0 25.1 25.0 25.0 POT. INT. (KT) 118 111 106 102 100 101 103 105 108 113 114 113 113 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -52.1 -52.5 -52.7 -52.4 -52.3 -52.4 -52.5 -52.6 -52.8 -53.4 -53.9 -54.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 71 68 66 62 60 55 48 44 43 46 46 43 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 30 29 28 27 26 26 24 21 18 17 17 18 17 850 MB ENV VOR 48 54 42 44 52 44 37 34 40 46 51 59 57 200 MB DIV 46 55 34 15 16 15 5 -12 0 -10 5 0 16 700-850 TADV 3 8 7 8 11 16 13 2 6 6 7 7 9 LAND (KM) 1894 1930 1972 2043 2109 1956 1785 1557 1288 1079 919 769 629 LAT (DEG N) 17.7 18.4 19.0 19.6 20.1 20.8 21.7 22.3 22.5 22.8 23.1 23.6 24.2 LONG(DEG W) 129.9 130.9 131.8 133.0 134.1 136.1 137.8 140.1 142.8 145.0 146.8 148.8 151.1 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 12 12 11 10 10 12 11 9 9 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 10 CX,CY: -7/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 553 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -3. -5. -9. -12. -14. -15. -15. -15. -15. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -4. -9. -14. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -4. -2. -1. -1. 1. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -11. -15. -17. -17. -15. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -7. -12. -17. -24. -30. -36. -44. -51. -56. -57. -60. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 17.7 129.9 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP042016 CELIA 07/13/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.12 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 42.5 40.3 to 144.5 0.02 0.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 0.0 to 75.9 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.2 38.9 to 2.1 0.78 3.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.5 18.9 to 1.4 0.65 2.8 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 65.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.91 3.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.2 -11.0 to 135.3 0.30 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 292.6 638.0 to -68.2 0.49 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.1 to -1.7 0.65 -0.5 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.1 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.3 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 5.9% 14.7% 11.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.1% 4.9% 3.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042016 CELIA 07/13/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##