* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DARBY EP052016 07/13/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 61 66 71 74 80 85 87 85 82 79 71 65 V (KT) LAND 55 61 66 71 74 80 85 87 85 82 79 71 65 V (KT) LGEM 55 63 71 76 80 84 85 84 80 76 70 64 59 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 11 8 9 10 14 11 13 5 7 2 5 2 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 2 3 0 -2 -2 -3 -1 -2 0 -5 0 SHEAR DIR 50 39 1 29 40 30 62 28 56 74 51 343 48 SST (C) 29.0 28.8 28.6 28.1 27.7 27.9 27.3 27.0 27.1 26.7 25.7 25.4 24.9 POT. INT. (KT) 155 153 151 146 142 144 138 134 135 130 120 117 112 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.7 -52.4 -52.0 -51.7 -52.5 -51.9 -52.4 -52.0 -52.8 -52.4 -52.9 -52.4 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.7 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 75 71 73 72 71 71 72 74 71 68 64 60 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 21 23 24 25 26 27 29 28 28 27 26 25 850 MB ENV VOR 18 25 31 45 50 46 53 56 75 85 83 78 79 200 MB DIV 67 64 65 86 53 35 65 33 14 -14 -12 -23 -2 700-850 TADV 1 -1 -2 -2 -1 -5 -2 -4 -2 -5 0 0 6 LAND (KM) 677 765 848 896 957 1092 1228 1362 1491 1621 1704 1836 1970 LAT (DEG N) 15.5 15.5 15.5 15.4 15.3 15.3 15.7 15.9 16.2 16.6 17.2 17.6 18.2 LONG(DEG W) 109.9 111.0 112.0 113.2 114.3 116.6 119.0 121.3 123.3 125.2 127.0 129.1 131.2 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 11 11 11 11 12 10 10 9 9 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 29 29 21 12 10 16 16 3 2 6 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 532 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 25.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE 5. 7. 8. 9. 8. 7. 5. 3. 2. 2. 0. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 11. 14. 13. 13. 11. 8. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 11. 16. 19. 25. 30. 32. 30. 27. 24. 16. 10. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 15.5 109.9 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052016 DARBY 07/13/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 20.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.69 6.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 94.1 40.3 to 144.5 0.52 3.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 20.2 0.0 to 75.9 0.27 2.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.5 38.9 to 2.1 0.45 3.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.0 18.9 to 1.4 0.51 3.4 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.91 5.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 67.0 -11.0 to 135.3 0.53 1.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 168.4 638.0 to -68.2 0.66 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.7 2.1 to -1.7 0.11 -0.1 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.8 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.8 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 32% is 2.5 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 3.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 4.3 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 4.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 28% is 3.9 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 17.5% 32.1% 26.1% 24.8% 16.6% 27.6% 0.0% Logistic: 4.5% 15.5% 7.8% 4.0% 1.8% 3.5% 1.8% Bayesian: 1.1% 26.7% 15.1% 5.1% 1.5% 1.2% 0.5% Consensus: 7.7% 24.8% 16.4% 11.3% 6.6% 10.8% 0.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052016 DARBY 07/13/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##