* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CELIA EP042016 07/13/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 62 58 53 48 40 33 24 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 65 62 58 53 48 40 33 24 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 65 61 57 52 48 40 33 28 24 20 17 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 6 7 11 14 16 12 16 25 33 43 47 50 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -1 0 0 0 1 4 6 3 0 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 261 246 224 220 238 250 259 264 267 274 272 265 263 SST (C) 25.0 24.5 24.1 23.8 23.7 23.9 24.2 24.3 24.7 25.1 25.0 25.1 25.3 POT. INT. (KT) 114 108 104 101 100 102 105 106 110 115 114 114 115 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.6 -52.7 -52.4 -52.4 -52.6 -52.6 -52.7 -52.7 -53.1 -53.7 -53.9 -54.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 4 700-500 MB RH 69 67 63 62 60 52 44 44 45 47 44 47 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 28 27 26 24 25 24 22 18 17 15 14 13 12 850 MB ENV VOR 49 36 30 38 46 34 38 36 40 50 59 57 49 200 MB DIV 55 32 8 16 22 2 -5 -12 -12 -16 -17 -8 -16 700-850 TADV 6 6 8 9 14 15 9 3 10 4 6 5 2 LAND (KM) 1934 1986 2044 2108 2091 1874 1644 1427 1204 981 777 605 461 LAT (DEG N) 18.1 18.7 19.3 19.8 20.3 21.3 22.0 22.4 22.7 23.0 23.6 23.8 23.8 LONG(DEG W) 130.7 131.8 132.8 133.8 134.8 136.9 139.2 141.4 143.7 146.1 148.7 151.0 152.9 STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 11 11 11 11 11 10 11 12 12 10 8 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 10 CX,CY: -7/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 553 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -6. -10. -12. -14. -15. -15. -15. -15. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. -2. -6. -12. -19. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -3. -3. -5. -7. -13. -16. -18. -19. -19. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -7. -12. -17. -25. -31. -41. -48. -56. -63. -69. -74. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 18.1 130.7 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP042016 CELIA 07/13/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.28 1.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 40.3 40.3 to 144.5 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 0.0 to 75.9 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.0 38.9 to 2.1 0.70 3.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.6 18.9 to 1.4 0.59 2.6 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 65.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.91 3.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.6 -11.0 to 135.3 0.26 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 304.6 638.0 to -68.2 0.47 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.1 to -1.7 0.71 -0.6 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.3 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.1 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.3 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.2 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 8.1% 14.4% 11.5% 7.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.8% 4.8% 3.9% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042016 CELIA 07/13/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##