* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DARBY EP052016 07/13/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 66 72 77 80 87 91 91 91 85 81 73 68 V (KT) LAND 60 66 72 77 80 87 91 91 91 85 81 73 68 V (KT) LGEM 60 67 72 77 80 85 88 86 83 79 74 69 63 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 11 9 6 8 14 11 10 7 7 1 2 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 2 2 0 -3 -1 -1 -5 -2 0 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 44 34 36 63 38 34 40 34 59 41 54 254 189 SST (C) 28.8 28.5 28.1 27.7 27.6 27.8 27.2 27.3 27.2 26.3 25.9 25.6 25.0 POT. INT. (KT) 153 150 146 142 141 143 136 137 136 126 122 119 113 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.7 -52.2 -51.6 -52.0 -52.0 -52.0 -52.2 -52.2 -52.5 -52.2 -52.5 -52.4 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 5 5 5 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 72 72 71 70 67 70 70 72 69 67 64 57 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 22 24 25 25 28 29 30 31 29 28 27 25 850 MB ENV VOR 28 37 51 61 61 63 64 77 91 89 102 98 95 200 MB DIV 51 57 74 77 43 51 55 40 0 -8 -4 2 12 700-850 TADV 0 -2 -2 0 -1 -3 -3 -4 -5 -1 0 0 5 LAND (KM) 785 878 919 965 1023 1183 1334 1459 1582 1710 1849 1964 2087 LAT (DEG N) 15.3 15.3 15.2 15.3 15.3 15.3 15.5 15.9 16.3 16.6 16.8 17.3 18.0 LONG(DEG W) 111.0 112.1 113.2 114.4 115.5 117.9 120.4 122.6 124.5 126.4 128.5 130.4 132.4 STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 11 11 11 12 11 10 9 10 10 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 27 19 12 10 14 23 10 3 10 2 0 0 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 580 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 19.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 3. 4. 5. 10. 13. 14. 16. 13. 11. 8. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 12. 17. 20. 27. 31. 31. 31. 25. 21. 13. 8. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 15.3 111.0 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052016 DARBY 07/13/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.61 6.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 86.0 40.3 to 144.5 0.44 3.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 16.4 0.0 to 75.9 0.22 1.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.9 38.9 to 2.1 0.71 5.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.1 18.9 to 1.4 0.56 4.1 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.98 6.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 60.4 -11.0 to 135.3 0.49 1.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 218.4 638.0 to -68.2 0.59 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.8 2.1 to -1.7 0.09 -0.1 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.9 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.2 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 37% is 2.9 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 30% is 3.4 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 4.7 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 5.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 28% is 4.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 20.3% 37.4% 29.6% 27.5% 20.4% 28.2% 0.0% Logistic: 4.7% 14.8% 7.2% 4.6% 2.1% 2.4% 1.9% Bayesian: 0.9% 11.6% 4.6% 1.4% 0.3% 1.4% 0.4% Consensus: 8.6% 21.3% 13.8% 11.1% 7.6% 10.7% 0.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052016 DARBY 07/13/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##