* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CELIA EP042016 07/13/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 56 51 46 41 34 26 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 60 56 51 46 41 34 26 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 60 56 52 47 43 36 30 26 23 21 18 16 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 6 9 11 14 14 8 15 27 31 35 39 42 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 1 1 0 0 4 5 3 0 0 -1 2 SHEAR DIR 262 251 220 223 231 263 279 250 265 268 270 274 262 SST (C) 24.4 24.0 23.7 23.6 23.8 24.0 24.1 24.5 25.1 25.2 25.2 25.3 25.5 POT. INT. (KT) 107 103 100 99 101 103 104 109 115 115 115 116 119 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.6 -52.4 -52.3 -52.6 -52.4 -52.7 -52.6 -52.8 -53.4 -53.9 -54.0 -54.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 3 2 2 1 2 2 2 2 3 4 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 67 65 63 60 56 47 46 44 45 44 43 46 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 28 27 26 26 24 24 21 18 17 16 15 15 13 850 MB ENV VOR 28 20 29 44 38 33 31 31 40 51 56 55 49 200 MB DIV 34 19 17 22 23 11 -9 -2 -10 2 -2 13 -5 700-850 TADV 6 7 11 18 18 15 1 8 5 7 3 4 6 LAND (KM) 1969 2023 2082 2091 1977 1776 1559 1313 1040 813 646 490 351 LAT (DEG N) 18.9 19.5 20.1 20.6 21.1 21.9 22.4 22.7 22.8 23.0 23.4 23.7 23.8 LONG(DEG W) 131.7 132.7 133.7 134.8 135.9 137.9 140.1 142.6 145.4 147.9 150.1 152.4 154.7 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 11 11 10 11 12 12 11 11 10 11 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 11 CX,CY: -8/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 589 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -10. -11. -11. -10. -10. -10. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. -1. -6. -11. -16. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -9. -13. -15. -16. -17. -16. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -9. -14. -19. -26. -34. -40. -45. -51. -56. -59. -64. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 18.9 131.7 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP042016 CELIA 07/13/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.28 1.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 42.0 40.3 to 144.5 0.02 0.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 0.0 to 75.9 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.5 38.9 to 2.1 0.61 2.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.5 18.9 to 1.4 0.54 2.2 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.98 3.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.0 -11.0 to 135.3 0.23 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 298.8 638.0 to -68.2 0.48 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.1 to -1.7 0.75 -0.6 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.2 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 5.5% 12.3% 10.3% 6.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.9% 4.1% 3.5% 2.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042016 CELIA 07/13/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##