* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DARBY EP052016 07/13/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 64 68 72 75 83 86 86 86 77 72 67 61 V (KT) LAND 60 64 68 72 75 83 86 86 86 77 72 67 61 V (KT) LGEM 60 63 67 70 73 77 79 80 78 73 68 63 56 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 12 8 8 9 9 12 8 8 4 5 7 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 0 0 0 -2 -4 -3 -3 0 -1 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 36 39 39 22 21 40 37 57 26 5 288 269 228 SST (C) 28.5 28.2 27.8 27.6 27.9 27.3 26.9 26.9 26.5 25.6 25.4 24.9 24.4 POT. INT. (KT) 149 146 143 141 144 137 133 133 129 119 117 112 107 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.4 -51.9 -52.1 -52.2 -51.5 -52.2 -51.7 -52.4 -52.0 -52.6 -52.4 -52.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.8 1.0 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 8 8 7 6 6 5 5 5 5 4 700-500 MB RH 72 70 68 65 67 69 70 68 65 62 61 57 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 22 24 25 25 26 28 29 29 30 27 27 26 24 850 MB ENV VOR 40 49 57 62 62 65 58 81 85 82 82 85 77 200 MB DIV 43 57 67 63 42 69 30 34 -19 -8 5 23 0 700-850 TADV -2 -2 0 -1 -2 -4 -5 -1 -5 -2 0 6 2 LAND (KM) 867 904 943 994 1059 1213 1331 1469 1623 1734 1845 1979 2142 LAT (DEG N) 15.2 15.3 15.3 15.5 15.6 15.8 16.1 16.5 16.8 17.2 17.7 18.2 18.7 LONG(DEG W) 111.9 113.0 114.0 115.3 116.5 118.9 121.1 123.3 125.4 127.4 129.3 131.3 133.5 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 11 12 12 11 11 11 10 10 9 10 11 HEAT CONTENT 18 11 8 12 16 19 6 9 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 567 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 18.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 0. -1. -2. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 3. 4. 8. 10. 10. 12. 6. 6. 4. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 12. 15. 23. 26. 26. 26. 17. 12. 7. 1. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 15.2 111.9 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052016 DARBY 07/13/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.45 3.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 84.7 40.3 to 144.5 0.43 2.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 13.0 0.0 to 75.9 0.17 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.2 38.9 to 2.1 0.81 5.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.1 18.9 to 1.4 0.50 3.2 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.98 5.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 54.4 -11.0 to 135.3 0.45 1.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 256.8 638.0 to -68.2 0.54 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.1 to -1.7 0.31 -0.4 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.8 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 32% is 2.5 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 2.8 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.9 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 4.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.6 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.2 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 14.4% 31.6% 23.7% 16.7% 16.6% 18.6% 13.3% Logistic: 4.7% 17.2% 7.8% 5.0% 2.7% 3.2% 1.4% Bayesian: 1.7% 6.4% 2.7% 0.9% 0.3% 1.4% 0.1% Consensus: 7.0% 18.4% 11.4% 7.5% 6.5% 7.7% 4.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052016 DARBY 07/13/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##