* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CELIA EP042016 07/13/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 39 34 29 26 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 45 39 34 29 26 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 45 38 33 29 27 22 19 17 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 9 10 13 14 11 13 24 34 34 38 40 46 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 2 0 0 0 6 7 2 2 0 -1 -1 SHEAR DIR 263 237 237 242 257 283 282 266 268 263 283 271 262 SST (C) 24.0 23.9 23.9 24.0 24.0 24.2 24.5 24.9 25.1 25.1 25.4 25.4 25.5 POT. INT. (KT) 103 102 102 103 103 105 109 113 114 114 117 117 118 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.4 -52.3 -52.6 -52.8 -52.5 -52.6 -52.5 -53.1 -53.9 -54.4 -54.1 -54.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.2 0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 62 59 57 53 48 43 44 44 46 42 44 47 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 27 26 27 25 25 22 19 18 16 15 14 13 12 850 MB ENV VOR 33 41 54 47 43 38 36 36 47 56 46 45 45 200 MB DIV 26 29 26 24 2 -10 -17 -13 -7 -13 0 -19 0 700-850 TADV 6 10 16 18 16 5 0 9 0 4 0 3 4 LAND (KM) 2089 2140 2029 1924 1823 1631 1358 1112 915 728 537 397 351 LAT (DEG N) 19.3 19.7 20.1 20.7 21.3 21.8 22.0 22.6 23.2 23.5 23.3 23.6 24.2 LONG(DEG W) 133.3 134.4 135.4 136.4 137.4 139.3 142.0 144.6 146.9 149.2 151.4 153.6 155.9 STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 11 11 10 11 12 12 10 11 10 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 12 CX,CY: -9/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 627 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 32.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 1. -5. -12. -18. -22. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -5. -8. -10. -10. -10. -10. -8. -5. -4. -3. 0. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -2. -2. -6. -11. -13. -16. -16. -17. -18. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -6. -11. -16. -19. -26. -33. -38. -43. -48. -53. -56. -58. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 19.3 133.3 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP042016 CELIA 07/13/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -20.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.03 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 57.5 40.3 to 144.5 0.17 0.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 0.0 to 75.9 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.4 38.9 to 2.1 0.61 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.6 18.9 to 1.4 0.48 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.63 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.4 -11.0 to 135.3 0.22 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 266.6 638.0 to -68.2 0.53 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.1 to -1.7 0.80 -0.3 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.2 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.5 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.5 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 1.5% 6.1% 4.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.5% 2.0% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042016 CELIA 07/13/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##