* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DARBY EP052016 07/13/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 68 72 75 80 84 84 85 81 75 68 62 57 V (KT) LAND 65 68 72 75 80 84 84 85 81 75 68 62 57 V (KT) LGEM 65 68 72 75 78 81 79 79 77 71 65 59 53 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 8 6 9 11 12 9 7 7 3 5 2 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -2 -6 -2 0 -1 6 0 SHEAR DIR 41 57 16 27 38 45 51 58 359 5 277 249 267 SST (C) 28.2 27.8 27.6 27.8 27.6 26.9 26.7 26.8 26.0 25.5 25.2 24.8 24.3 POT. INT. (KT) 147 143 141 143 141 133 131 132 123 118 115 111 106 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.2 -52.2 -52.4 -52.2 -52.0 -52.3 -51.8 -52.3 -52.2 -52.5 -52.2 -52.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 7 6 6 5 5 5 4 4 3 700-500 MB RH 70 67 65 65 65 66 67 65 60 58 53 54 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 22 23 24 25 27 28 28 29 29 27 26 25 24 850 MB ENV VOR 49 57 61 61 63 64 75 88 79 95 89 95 76 200 MB DIV 38 47 52 45 43 49 28 1 -24 -9 17 4 -17 700-850 TADV -2 0 -1 -1 -3 -4 -2 -4 -4 -1 1 4 3 LAND (KM) 901 940 992 1054 1128 1276 1397 1539 1684 1803 1946 2077 2120 LAT (DEG N) 15.3 15.4 15.5 15.7 15.9 16.1 16.5 16.8 17.0 17.4 17.8 18.3 18.9 LONG(DEG W) 113.0 114.2 115.3 116.6 117.8 120.3 122.4 124.4 126.5 128.5 130.6 132.5 134.6 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 12 12 12 11 10 10 10 10 10 10 11 HEAT CONTENT 11 8 12 15 17 8 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 566 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 20.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 5. 7. 7. 9. 9. 7. 5. 3. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 10. 15. 19. 19. 20. 16. 10. 3. -3. -8. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 15.3 113.0 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052016 DARBY 07/13/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.45 3.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 77.8 40.3 to 144.5 0.36 2.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 12.6 0.0 to 75.9 0.17 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.8 38.9 to 2.1 0.82 5.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.4 18.9 to 1.4 0.55 3.4 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 65.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.91 4.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 45.0 -11.0 to 135.3 0.38 1.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 317.6 638.0 to -68.2 0.45 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.1 to -1.7 0.41 -0.5 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.8 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.4 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 30% is 2.3 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.6 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.7 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 4.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.3 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.9 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 15.3% 29.8% 22.3% 17.4% 14.6% 16.3% 11.0% Logistic: 3.5% 12.5% 5.2% 3.2% 1.8% 1.7% 0.7% Bayesian: 1.2% 7.2% 2.8% 1.0% 0.3% 0.5% 0.0% Consensus: 6.7% 16.5% 10.1% 7.2% 5.6% 6.2% 3.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052016 DARBY 07/13/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##