* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CELIA EP042016 07/14/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 41 36 33 30 23 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 45 41 36 33 30 23 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 45 41 37 34 32 27 24 21 19 17 DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 12 13 12 11 9 15 25 29 31 39 43 40 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 1 0 0 4 8 3 0 2 0 0 0 SHEAR DIR 248 242 255 274 293 295 286 277 266 273 276 267 263 SST (C) 23.9 23.8 24.0 24.1 24.2 24.4 24.7 25.2 25.3 25.3 25.3 25.5 25.5 POT. INT. (KT) 102 101 103 104 105 107 111 115 116 116 116 118 118 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.3 -52.7 -52.9 -52.7 -52.9 -52.9 -53.2 -53.7 -54.3 -54.1 -53.9 -54.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 3 2 3 2 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 62 59 56 51 46 45 44 43 40 41 42 43 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 24 25 24 23 23 20 17 15 15 14 13 12 12 850 MB ENV VOR 30 48 46 44 39 30 26 32 43 48 50 43 49 200 MB DIV 29 17 17 12 0 -5 -7 -10 -3 -4 -3 -13 -2 700-850 TADV 9 11 17 17 14 0 7 5 6 4 5 4 7 LAND (KM) 2150 2039 1924 1822 1720 1498 1226 984 789 618 475 367 275 LAT (DEG N) 19.7 20.3 20.8 21.1 21.4 21.8 22.0 22.3 22.7 23.1 23.7 24.0 24.0 LONG(DEG W) 134.2 135.3 136.4 137.4 138.4 140.6 143.3 145.8 148.0 150.2 152.6 154.8 157.0 STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 11 10 10 12 12 11 10 11 11 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 672 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 37.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 0. -5. -11. -17. -22. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -5. -9. -12. -12. -14. -15. -15. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -6. -5. -4. -4. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -9. -12. -15. -22. -28. -33. -36. -42. -46. -49. -51. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 19.7 134.2 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP042016 CELIA 07/14/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.20 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 57.9 40.3 to 144.5 0.17 0.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 0.0 to 75.9 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.2 38.9 to 2.1 0.40 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.3 18.9 to 1.4 0.44 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.63 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.0 -11.0 to 135.3 0.18 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 275.2 638.0 to -68.2 0.51 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.1 to -1.7 0.79 -0.3 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.2 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.4 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.2 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 1.5% 4.1% 3.2% 0.0% 0.0% 1.6% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.5% 1.4% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042016 CELIA 07/14/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##